6.18 Auntie's Thinking: Hawkish Selling Off Weak Repairs, Rebound Mainly High

$ETH
Early morning Federal Reserve FOMC hawkish boots land, Auntie follows the market downward in sync, touching around 1730 at the lowest, then although there was a slight rebound and correction, the overall trend is clearly much weaker than Bitcoin, just a weak rebound in a downtrend, with no real upward momentum.

Trading idea: Range around 1765-1780, with a target of 1720-1650, aiming for a breakout above 1805.

Let's clarify the core logic for everyone, why we are bearish:

Macro hawkish surprise, overall pressure

This time, the FOMC directly wiped out all easing guidance, the dot plot revised interest rate expectations up to 3.8%, half of the officials support rate hikes within the year, and previous rate cut expectations are basically wiped out. Now, the dollar and US bonds are strengthening together, putting pressure on all risk assets. Auntie itself is a highly elastic currency, so the impact is naturally more obvious.

Lack of fundamental support, already somewhat weak

Ethereum spot ETF funds have been net outflows for 15 consecutive days. Recently, there was a brief inflow, but whether it can continue is uncertain, and a large proportion of arbitrage funds are involved. On-chain DeFi and NFT activity remain sluggish, with little incremental capital willing to enter, so the long-term trend is weaker than Bitcoin.

Overall, macro hawkish suppression will continue, and Auntie itself has no strong fundamental support, with volatility far greater than Bitcoin. In trading, be sure to strictly set stop-losses, control position sizes, and avoid impulsively doubling down on shorts against the trend.