#沃什首秀美联储利率不变 After the Fed Chairman Change: Warsh's Debut, Global Market Reactions, and Historical Performance

Federal Reserve new Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 (local time), and delivered a highly anticipated keynote speech at the subsequent press conference. Due to his display of a strong "systemic reform" resolve in the speech, this speech was seen by the market as a declaration that the Fed's policy style has entered the "Warsh era." Below is a summary of the core content of his speech and policy announcement:
1. Monetary Policy Decision: Hold Steady, but Hawkish Expectations Emerge!
Maintain rates unchanged: The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to keep the benchmark rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range.
Hawkish rate hike expectations: Although this meeting kept rates steady, quarterly economic forecasts show that, influenced by supply shocks from Middle East conflicts and rising energy prices, U.S. inflation has risen to a high of 4.2%.
Nine out of 12 members expect at least one rate hike before the end of this year, contrasting with the market's previous expectations of rate cuts.
2. Key Points of the Speech: Iron-Fisted Reshaping of the Fed’s Communication Mechanism
Warsh sharply pared down the Fed’s past communication style, emphasizing a return to simplicity and directness:
Abandon "Forward Guidance": Warsh explicitly stated that, in the current economic environment, forward guidance "is not applicable."
He straightforwardly said, "I cannot provide any forward guidance on future interest rates. The good news is, we will meet again in six weeks."
This means the Fed will no longer try to pre-emptively guide market expectations but will base decisions entirely on subsequent economic data (Data-dependent).
Significantly reduced policy statement: The policy statement issued at this meeting was extremely simplified, removing lengthy modifiers, merely indicating the rate decision and reaffirming ample reserves in the banking system.
Refusal to participate in the "Dot Plot": As a long-time critic of quarterly economic forecasts and the dot plot, Warsh practiced his own philosophy—he was the only Fed official to refuse to submit individual rate forecasts (dot plot points).
Hints at reducing press conference frequency: Warsh quoted his mentor’s maxim: "Press conferences are useful, but only if you have something important to say when you hold them."
Implying that future meetings may not necessarily be accompanied by press conferences every time.
3. Launching the "Five Major Policy Working Groups" Restructuring Plan
To achieve a thorough reflection and reshaping of the Fed’s operational model, Warsh announced the formation of five new dedicated working groups in his speech. These groups will bring in top economists from both inside and outside the Fed, starting from "first principles," and propose reforms in the following core areas by the end of this year:
Monetary Policy Communication: Study how to streamline and optimize how the Fed signals to the market.
Balance Sheet: Assess how to reduce the Fed’s massive balance sheet.
Economic Data Quality: Re-examine the data sources and analytical frameworks relied upon for decision-making.
Productivity: Focus on how productivity and capital investment can boost potential economic growth (Warsh specifically emphasized that current U.S. productivity and capital investment remain strong).
Labor Market: Evaluate metrics for maximizing employment.
4. Emphasizing the 2% Inflation Target
In response to previous speculation that he might succumb to White House pressure to tolerate inflation or modify the target, Warsh gave a very firm positive response in his speech:
"We have the ability and confidence to achieve the 2% price stability goal. This commitment is firm, consistent, and unequivocal. It’s an important signal that the Fed has lacked over the past five years, and we are now here to fully address that."
5. Market Reactions
Due to Warsh’s debut showcasing a strongly hawkish communication style (no forward guidance, colleagues hinting at rate hikes, tough stance on fighting inflation), not only did the market’s previous expectations of rate cuts completely evaporate, but it also increased policy uncertainty moving forward.
All three major U.S. stock indices plummeted after the press conference, with the Dow Jones closing down 500 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both falling more than 1.2%, the Russell 2000 down 0.72%, and the VIX fear index rising 12%.
6. Reviewing the Years of Past Fed Chairs’ Appointments, Market Environment, and the One-Year Performance of the U.S. Major Indices
Over the past 40+ years, new Fed chairs taking office does not necessarily mean poor stock market performance. Except for Greenspan, who took office during the 1987 stock crash, most of the other chairs saw positive returns in their first year.
What truly influences market performance is often not who the chair is but the economic cycle at the time they take over:
- Volcker faced hyperinflation,
- Bernanke faced a housing bubble,
- Yellen inherited the QE era,
- Warsh is entering a new cycle shaped by AI investments, fiscal deficits, and high interest rates.
Although history does not predict the future, we will see how the future unfolds.