Current price: 1681 USDT, 24-hour decline of 4.21%, early morning Federal Reserve June meeting signals hawkish stance, significantly cooling down the expectation of rate cuts this year, half of the officials support rate hikes within the year, the dollar strengthens, suppressing all risk assets; ETH volatility is much higher than BTC, the previous rebound structure has been completely broken, confirming a full-cycle bearish trend, spot ETF continues large net outflows, with no new capital support for a rebound. Today's core trading idea is to follow the rebound and go short mainly, only lightly hold oversold positions for recovery longs, with low leverage and strict stop-loss throughout, to avoid wide-range pin-in and chain liquidation risks.

1. Key Price Levels for the Full Cycle (Contract Practical Range)

Resistance levels (from near to far)

1. Intraday short-term watershed: 1738–1760 (4-hour middle Bollinger band + yesterday’s oscillation center, short-term selling pressure zone, intra-day strength/weakness boundary)

2. Mid-term core resistance: 1870–1910 (Daily MA20 overlapping with previous trapped positions, the ceiling of this rebound, difficult to reach in the short term)

3. Trend reversal threshold: 1990–2010 (Previous oscillation box upper boundary, only when volume stabilizes above can the mid-term bearish structure ease)

4. Long-term strong resistance: 2130–2150 (Platform at the start of decline, large trapped positions in medium to long term, strong resistance to trend reversal)

Support levels (from near to far)

1. Intraday short-term support: 1645–1655 (Low point of this rebound, short-term bullish/bearish critical support line)

2. Phase core support: 1590–1600 (June bottom, concentrated demand zone for spot bottom fishing)

3. Extreme downside zone: 1490–1510 (Deep correction target, effective break below 4-hour support opens a continuous downtrend channel)

2. Multi-cycle Indicator Panorama

Daily chart D1 (Medium to long-term trend)

• RSI(14)=35.7, falling below the 50 boundary, approaching oversold zone, only minor technical correction, no bullish reversal signal

• MACD: Bullish crossover below zero line with red bars shrinking, dual lines turning downward, bearish selling pressure reasserts dominance

• Moving averages: Price all under MA20/MA50/MA100, in standard bearish alignment, layered moving averages exert heavy resistance above

• Capital flow: ETH spot ETF has been net outflowing for several days, hawkish policy implementation accelerates institutional capital withdrawal from crypto; ETH/BTC exchange rate remains low, long-term weaker than BTC

4-hour H4 (Core contract trading cycle)

• RSI quickly drops from overbought 62 to 38, bearish momentum continues, short-term only slight rebound correction needed

• Bollinger bands contract downward, price breaks below middle band turning into strong resistance, upper band at 1758, lower band at 1642

• K-line structure: rebound highs keep moving lower, lows also decline, standard downtrend continuation pattern, no conditions for a one-sided rally

• Contract positions: Bear squeeze fully over, short positions continue to increase, the long-short ratio heavily favors bears, market panic intensifies

1-hour H1 (Intra-day short-term cycle)

Bearish trend fully established, MACD dual lines dead-cross downward, green bars expanding, K-lines consecutively closing lower with oscillation, slight rebounds face immediate heavy selling, overall intra-day trend weak.

3. Two Market Path Scenarios

Path 1: Slight recovery from oversold conditions (low probability rebound)

Confirmation: Retracement to 1645–1655 with volume contraction and stabilization, hourly candles show bullish reversal, BTC also stabilizes and recovers, US stocks risk sentiment slightly improves

• First take-profit target: 1738–1760

• Failure signal: Rebound near 1750 with volume stagnation and long upper shadow candles, directly resume decline

Path 2: Continued pressure downward (main intra-day baseline)

1. First downside target: 1645–1655 (short-term support)

2. Second downside target: 1590–1600 (phase bottom support)
Break risk: Effective break below 1645 on 4-hour close, then target directly toward 1490–1510 zone

4. Three Standardized Complete Practical Strategies

Strategy 1: Short-term low buy (only oversold stabilization for light position testing, strictly no early bottom-fishing)

1. Entry conditions: Price retraces to 1645–1655, hourly candles show volume contraction and bullish close, volume significantly shrinks

2. Partial profit-taking: TP1 1735 (reduce 50%); TP2 1758 (close all)

3. Stop-loss: 1635 (break below short-term core support, bullish logic invalidated, exit)

4. Risk-reward ratio: ≥2:1, do not open if not met

Strategy 2: Short-term high short (rebound pressure-based layout, no early top-fishing)

1. Entry conditions: Rebound hits resistance at 1738–1760, 4-hour candles show long upper shadows and volume stagnation

2. Partial profit-taking: TP1 1650 (reduce 50%); TP2 1595 (close all)

3. Stop-loss: 1770 (break above resistance zone, bearish logic invalidated, exit)

4. Risk-reward ratio: ≥2:1

Strategy 3: Range observation

Price remains stuck in 1655–1738 narrow sideways with low volume, no new positions; current macro bearish dominates, reduce frequent short-term trades, avoid unnecessary pin-in and loss.

5. ETH-specific Rigid Risk Control Rules (Today’s Mandatory Enforcement)

1. Leverage control: intraday short-term leverage ≤6x, US market 20:00–00:00 high volatility period leverage ≤3x, ETH daily amplitude can reach 8%-11%, prohibit high leverage heavy positions, prioritize isolated margin to manage risk

2. Position control: single trade loss limit no more than 1% of total account funds, operate with small positions, prohibit full position betting on one side; short positions should be cautious of short-term short squeeze risks

3. Stop-loss discipline: set stop-loss upon opening, do not manually move stop-loss, do not hold losing orders, do not add to floating losses to average down; no downside limit for shorts, stop-loss is the first line of defense

4. Trading constraints: stop all trading after two consecutive stop-losses in a day, prevent emotional contrarian bottom-fishing

5. Position cost: quick in and out, avoid overnight holdings as much as possible, reduce position costs before 08/16/24 settlement, minimize overnight gap risks

6. Core Market Risks

1. Macro risk: Fed’s dot plot signals rate hikes within the year, high interest rate environment continues to tighten liquidity, ETH as a highly elastic risk asset has a much larger correction than BTC, no sustained bullish trend in the short term

2. Correlation risk: market fully tied to BTC, if BTC continues weakening, ETH will also deeply correct, no independent strength

3. Capital structure risk: previous rebound mainly driven by short covering, spot incremental funds are severely lacking, small rebounds quickly face concentrated trapped positions selling pressure

4. Contract liquidation risk: ETH long and short positions heavily squeezed, frequent pin-ins, no stop-loss easily triggers chain liquidation; concentrated short liquidation can induce short-term short squeeze rebound

5. Chip pressure: large accumulation of medium to long-term trapped positions in the 1740–2150 range, without huge new capital inflows, difficult to #沃什首秀美联储利率不变 break through once

ETH-2.78%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

1 Likes