Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main Trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,448 on May 10 is experiencing a critical turning point. Currently trading at 64,560. Although the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, the astonishing surge at the end of June 14 + the breakout above 67,000 on June 15 show that bullish strength was once extremely strong. The consecutive crashes on June 16–17 indicate that the bearish rebound force is terrifying, and wave C’s rally has likely already failed.
Short-term Trend (15-minute level): The move on June 14 was an extreme reversal from "hell to heaven." The short-term trend shifted from "steep rise" to "steep decline." After breaking 67,000 on June 15, a new upward channel was formed, but the continuous crashes on June 16–17 completely destroyed this channel, confirming the short-term trend has turned downward.
Dow Conclusion: The main trend remains downward, and the short-term trend has shifted from "steep rise" to "steep decline." The astonishing surge at the end of June 14 broke through the high of 64,722 on June 13, creating a new high of 65,709 during the rebound. On June 15, it further broke through to 67,243, but on June 16, it crashed to 65,307, and on June 17, further down to 63,874, with a rebound to 64,560 in the early morning of June 18. The key resistance zone above 65,000–65,500 is critical; if the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term downtrend may pause temporarily. If the rebound is blocked at 65,000 and falls below 63,500, the downtrend will continue, targeting 62,500–61,000.
2. Chan Theory
Structure of Fractals: At the 15-minute level, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked on the chart.
Top Fractal: The top fractal appeared at the end of June 14 with a shocking surge, rising from around 64,000 to 65,500–66,000, then further to 67,000 on June 15. It fell back to 65,500 on June 16, then further crashed to 64,000 on June 17, and rebounded to 64,500 in the early morning of June 18, showing that the bearish force is fully dominant.
Bottom Fractal: The bottom fractal appeared at the end of June 14 with a shocking surge, rising from around 63,600 to 64,000–65,500, then further to 65,000–67,000 on June 15. After crashing on June 16, it fell back to 65,500, then further crashed to 63,800 on June 17, and rebounded to 64,500 in the early morning of June 18, indicating that the bullish willingness to support is extremely weak, and the bears are fully in control.
Bi (Pen) and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 63,414 to the top fractal at 64,722 (June 13, 21:30), forming a very strong upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 1,308. Then from 64,722 top fractal to 63,643 bottom fractal (June 14, 10:30), forming a downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 1,079, roughly 82.5% of the previous upward stroke, indicating strong bearish force. Next, from 63,643 bottom fractal to 65,709 top fractal (June 14, 23:00), forming an extremely terrifying upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 2,066, far exceeding the previous upward stroke, showing that bullish power is extremely fierce. Then from 65,709 top to 65,315 bottom (June 15, 02:00), forming a downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 394. Next, from 65,315 bottom to 67,243 top (June 15, 15:00), forming an even stronger upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 1,928, nearly matching the previous upward stroke, indicating sustained strong bullish force. Then from 67,243 top to 64,038 bottom (June 17, 19:00), forming an extremely terrifying downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 3,205, far surpassing the previous downward stroke (-1,079), showing that the bearish rebound force is terrifying and has completely crushed the bulls. Currently, starting from the bottom fractal at 64,038, the price is constructing a new initial upward stroke, with the latest high at 64,579.
Central Zone: In the 63,000–65,000 range, the K-lines from June 11–14 are densely interwoven, forming a central zone in Chan Theory. The current price of 64,560 has returned inside this zone, indicating a retracement confirmation after a downward breakout. In the 60,500–62,000 range, the dense K-line interaction from June 9–10 has formed a downward central zone, but the V-shaped rebound after June 10 afternoon + the strong upward attack from June 11–15 have completely broken through this zone. In the 66,200–67,000 range, dense K-line interaction on June 15 from 12:00–21:00 has formed a new central zone, but after the crash on June 16, this zone has been completely broken down. In the 64,000–64,500 range, dense K-line interaction on June 17 from 20:00–23:00 is forming a new potential central zone in Chan Theory.
Chan Theory Conclusion: The upward strokes are extremely powerful (+2,066 and +1,928), but the downward strokes are even more terrifying (-3,205), showing that bears are fully dominant. Currently, the market is in a low-position oscillation stage after the extension of downward strokes, with no end signals yet. Short-term focus on whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 64,038; if yes, the downward stroke may end. If it directly falls below 63,500, the downward extension will continue, with risks targeting 62,500–61,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the trend since the high of 82,448 on May 10 is divided into a typical "five-wave decline + ABC failed rebound" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,448 down to 75,658 (May 26), about -6,790.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,658 up to 78,002 (May 26), about +2,344.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 78,002 down to 66,703 (June 2), about -11,299.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,703 up to 74,153 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,153 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,058.
Wave A (Rebound): From 59,095 up to 64,184 (June 8, 15:00), about +5,089.
Wave B (Correction): From 64,184 down to 60,774 (June 10, 09:00), about -3,410. Wave B’s correction is about 67.0% of Wave A, a typical deep correction.
Wave C (Expansion): From 60,774 up to 67,243 (June 15, 15:00), about +6,469. Wave C’s current amplitude is about 127.1% of Wave A, exceeding Wave A’s length. But after crashing to 65,307 on June 16 and further to 64,038 on June 17, Wave C has been confirmed as failed. The current phase may be in a new downward impulsive wave 1 or a Wave 2 correction.
Wave Theory Conclusion: The market is in a new downward impulsive wave after Wave C’s failed rebound. Although Wave C once exceeded Wave A in length, the consecutive crashes on June 16–17 confirmed Wave C’s failure. If in a new impulsive wave 1, targets are 62,500–61,000; if in Wave 2 correction, the rebound target is 65,000–65,500 before further decline.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall Volume-Price Features: On June 14, there was an extremely extreme volume-price pattern. During the morning’s oscillation and decline, volume was relatively shrinking; during the afternoon crash, massive volume appeared; during the astonishing surge at the end of the day, even larger volume was observed. On June 15, the volume significantly increased during the break above 67,000, indicating sustained strong bullish force. During the crash on June 16, volume again surged, showing very strong bearish rebound force. The crash on June 17 also saw a significant volume increase, confirming that bears are fully dominant. The alternating pattern of volume increase during declines and rises shows that recently, bearish volume is clearly superior.
Key Volume-Price Nodes:
- June 14 01:00: A large bullish candle with volume 126 million, rising from 64,529 to 64,600, confirming early bullish attack.
- June 14 04:45: A huge bearish candle with volume 712 million, dropping from 64,362 to 64,310, confirming panic selling.
- June 14 06:30: An extremely large bearish candle with volume 391 million, dropping from 64,356 to 64,212, confirming panic selling concentrated outflow.
- June 14 10:30: A large bearish candle with volume 712 million, dropping from 64,627 to 64,480, confirming continued panic selling.
- June 14 12:45: An extremely large bearish candle with volume 733 million, dropping from 64,346 to 64,266, confirming extreme panic selling.
- June 14 14:30: An extremely large bearish candle with volume 866 million, dropping from 64,122 to 63,908, confirming cliff-like plunge.
- June 14 17:30: A large bearish candle with volume 575 million, dropping from 63,866 to 63,725, confirming continued panic selling.
- June 14 18:00: An extremely large bearish candle with volume 175 million, dropping from 63,708 to 63,691, confirming extreme panic.
- June 14 21:15: An astonishing large bullish candle with volume 743 million, rising from 64,070 to 64,742, confirming bullish force explosion and panic buying.
- June 14 21:30: An extremely large bullish candle with volume 888 million, rising from 64,774 to 65,236, confirming sustained bullish force.
- June 14 21:45: An astonishing large bullish candle with volume 0, rising from 65,258 to 65,608, confirming bullish force reaching extreme.
- June 14 23:00: An extremely large bullish candle with volume 141 million, rising from 65,391 to 65,709, confirming bullish force again erupting.
- June 15 15:00: A large bullish candle with significantly increased volume, rising from 66,534 to 67,243, confirming Wave C’s main upward acceleration.
- June 16 14:00: An extremely large bearish candle with volume 0, dropping from 66,000 to 65,307, confirming very strong bearish rebound.
- June 17 19:00: An extremely large bearish candle with volume 1B, dropping from 65,508 to 64,038, confirming extreme bearish force and Wave C’s failure.
Recent 10 five-minute candles: From 64,038 oscillating back to 64,560, volume shows decreasing consolidation, market waiting in the 64,000–64,500 zone for direction.
Volume-Price Conclusion: The crash on June 14 featured massive volume with panic selling; but the end-of-day surge had even larger volume, with bullish force crushing bears. The breakout above 67,000 on June 15 was accompanied by significantly increased volume, confirming Wave C’s main upward wave. The crashes on June 16–17 again saw large volume, confirming strong bearish rebound and Wave C’s failure. Currently, low-volume consolidation at low levels indicates both sides are resting, but bearish force is dominant. Key observation points: If a rebound near 65,000–65,500 shows volume stagnation at the top, it confirms a new downward impulsive wave; if it breaks below 63,500 with volume, the decline accelerates.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The recent 3 days’ volume control point (POC) is at 65,700. This is the area with the densest trading between bulls and bears, forming the current most important value zone center. The current price of 64,560 is well below POC, indicating a negative divergence between market value center and actual price, with bears dominating.
Current Analysis: Price at 64,560 is about 1,140 below POC, in the below-value zone with a large deviation. In order flow theory, breaking below POC indicates short-term sellers are fully in control, and the market is shifting from a premium to a deep discount state. The current price is moving toward a lower value zone, with obvious resistance around 65,000.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 65,000–66,000: Resistance HVN (dense trading from June 14–16, current resistance)
- 64,000–65,000: Core support HVN (dense trading after June 17 crash, current support)
- 63,000–64,000: Support HVN below (early June dense trading zone)
- 60,500–61,500: Strong support HVN (massive support after June 10 crash)
Delta Analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta estimates show that during the June 14 14:30 crash, Delta sharply turned negative (-1.5 billion), confirming active selling. During the astonishing surge at 21:15–21:45, Delta sharply turned positive (+5 billion), confirming active buying at the end. On June 15 during the break above 67,000, Delta again turned positive (+3 billion), confirming sustained bullish strength. During the crash on June 16, Delta sharply turned negative again (-2.5 billion), confirming very strong bearish rebound. On June 17, during the crash, Delta again turned sharply negative (-5 billion), confirming extreme bearish force and complete dominance over bulls. Currently, Delta MA12 has fallen from positive to deep negative, indicating very strong selling pressure and bulls being overwhelmed.
Order Flow Conclusion: Price below POC 65,700, short-term sellers are fully in control, market in deep discount. The resistance at 65,000 and 65,500 are key HVNs; if Delta continues to turn positive with volume at these levels, it may push toward 66,000. If Delta remains negative and price falls below 63,500, a new downward impulsive wave may begin.
6. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong Resistance: 82,448 (high point), 78,002 (May 26 rebound high), 74,153 (May 31 rebound high), 67,243 (June 15 rebound high), 66,937 (June 16 rebound high)
- Key Resistance: 67,000 (psychological level), 66,500, 66,000, 65,709 (June 14 rebound high), 65,500, 65,000, 64,722 (June 13 rebound high), 64,340 (June 12 rebound high)
- Key Support: 64,000 (psychological level), 63,500 (June 14 crash low), 63,000, 62,500 (June 12 consolidation lower boundary), 62,759 (June 12 early low), 60,774 (June 10 crash low), 59,095 (June 5 crash low)
Candlestick Patterns:
- June 14 14:30: A long lower shadow bearish candle (body 214, shadow 214) near 63,908, showing panic selling with buy support below, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
- June 14 17:30: A long lower shadow bearish candle (body 141, shadow 141) near 63,725, indicating strong buy support after panic selling, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
- June 14 21:15: A large bullish candle with long lower shadow (body 672, shadow 0), from 64,070 to 64,742, showing a strong V-shaped reversal, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.
- June 14 21:30: A large bullish candle with long lower shadow (body 462, shadow 0), from 64,774 to 65,236, indicating continued bullish force.
- June 14 21:45: A large bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 350, upper shadow 0), from 65,258 to 65,608, showing bullish force reaching extreme.
- June 14 23:00: A large bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 318, upper shadow 0), from 65,391 to 65,709, again showing bullish force erupting.
- June 15 15:00: A large bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 709, upper shadow 0), from 66,534 to 67,243, accelerating Wave C’s main upward move.
- June 16 14:00: A large bearish candle with long lower shadow (body 693, shadow 0), from 66,000 to 65,307, indicating very strong bearish rebound, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
- June 17 19:00: A large bearish candle with long lower shadow (body 1,470, shadow 0), from 65,508 to 64,038, showing extreme bearish force, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
Trend Structure:
- Short-term: The steep upward channel has been completely broken (the rising trendline connecting 60,774, 63,643, 65,315 has been breached), now in a steep downward channel.
- Mid-term: The downtrend since May 10 at 82,448 continues, with a new downtrend line forming.
Price Action Conclusion: The short-term is in a crash phase after Wave C’s failure, with 64,000 as the key dividing line: holding above may lead to a technical rebound targeting 65,000–65,500; breaking below may trigger a new downward impulsive wave targeting 62,500–61,000.
Overall Assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward, with the short-term trend shifting from "steep rise" to "steep decline," with key levels at 65,000 (upside) and 63,500 (downside). Chan Theory shows extremely powerful upward strokes (+2,066 and +1,928) but even more terrifying downward strokes (-3,205), with the market currently oscillating at low levels after downward extension, fully dominated by bears. Elliott Wave confirms a five-wave decline completed, with Wave C’s rebound failure (+6,469 then crash to 64,038). Volume-Price signals show massive volume during the crash + even larger volume during the end-of-day surge + the breakout above 67,000 with large volume + continuous large-volume crashes on June 16–17, all indicating bears’ dominance. Order flow shows POC at 65,700, with price below POC, entering a deep discount zone, and negative Delta MA12 confirming strong selling pressure. Price action shows "hammer," "bullish engulfing," and "bearish engulfing" patterns, with short-term bears fully in control. 64,000 is the critical dividing line.
Short-term Strategy Suggestions:
- Bullish Bias: If price shows decreasing volume with stabilization near 63,500–64,000, forming a bottom fractal with Delta turning positive, consider trying long positions targeting 65,000 → 65,500, with a stop at 63,000.
- Bearish Bias: If a rebound to 65,000–65,500 forms a top fractal with increasing volume and downward movement, confirming a new downward impulsive wave, consider short positions targeting 64,000 → 63,000, with a stop at 66,000.
Current State: At 64,560, in a crash phase after Wave C’s failure, with bears fully dominant. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to 65,000–65,500 to confirm resistance before considering shorting, or wait for a break below 63,500 to confirm trend continuation before shorting again. If support at 64,000 holds and a bottom fractal forms, cautious longs can be considered.