BTC Market Trend Analysis and Forecast

Analysis Time: 2026.06.18 09:34
Current Price: 64,684.01 USDT

I. Multi-Cycle Technical Overview of the Market

1. Monthly Chart Dimension
Monthly Bollinger Upper Band 122565, Middle Band 90980, Lower Band 59396. The current price has sharply retreated from the historical high of 126199, entering a phase of oscillation and correction after a significant bull market rally. MACD double lines continue to decline, indicating a bearish pattern. Overhead, medium- to long-term selling pressure is heavy, and the overall large cycle has not yet returned to a bullish trend.

2. Weekly Chart Dimension
Weekly Bollinger Bands range from 60313 to 81709, with the middle band at 71010. The current price at 64688 is below the weekly middle band. MACD on the weekly remains in a bearish zone below zero. There is a large amount of trapped positions between 67000 and 71000, and each rebound encounters resistance from short-term short covering pressure.

3. Daily Chart Dimension
Daily Bollinger Upper Band 72528, Middle Band 65198, Lower Band 57868. The current price is close to just below the daily middle band, showing obvious short-term resistance. The 24-hour high and low are 66445/63915, with a narrowing intra-day volatility range, indicating weak willingness for new capital to enter.

4. 4-Hour Chart Dimension
4H Bollinger Upper Band 72528, Middle Band 65198, Lower Band 57868. MACD green bars slightly narrow but have not formed a valid golden cross. Downward momentum is slightly weakening, and rebounds lack volume, indicating a weak oscillation correction.

5. 1-Hour Short-Term Dimension
1H Bollinger range 63903-66117. The current price is near the lower band support. MACD bearish signals are mildly easing. Short-term bulls and bears are balanced, lacking strong directional driving force.

Core Key Support and Resistance

Short-term strong support: 63900 (1-hour lower Bollinger band, 24h low; if broken, short-term weakens)
Phase life line: 59130 (the low of this correction cycle; breaking below signals a mid-term bear trend and opens deep downside space)
First short-term resistance: 65010, 67227
Medium-term strong resistance: 71000, 72528 (daily Bollinger upper band, dense trapped zone)

II. Complete Multi-Cycle Trend Forecast

Short-term (1~3 trading days)

Market mainly oscillates weakly between 63900 and 67200, difficult to break out into a large upward or downward trend.

1. Optimistic Scenario: Bulls volume up and stabilize above 67227, slightly rebound to challenge 70,000, but strong resistance at 71,000 from trapped positions will limit the rise. The rebound is mainly a window for profit-taking and reducing positions.
2. Pessimistic Scenario: Bears break below 63900 support, with price testing 62,000~60,000 zone, further digesting panic selling pressure.
Currently, the market lacks strong positive catalysts. Federal Reserve rate expectations and ETF fund outflows continue to suppress the market. Short-term bulls do not have the conditions for sustained upward movement.

Medium-term (1~4 weeks)

Market direction is entirely determined by macro liquidity and BTC spot ETF fund flows, with two diverging paths:

1. Rebound Repair Path
Trigger conditions: Fed signals rate cuts, spot ETF funds continue inflow, US stock risk assets stabilize; price rebounds to 72,000~75,000, reaching the upper neutral valuation. After concentrated profit-taking in trapped zones, the rebound cycle is limited.
2. Deep Correction Path
Trigger conditions: US dollar strengthens, rate hike expectations rise, ETF experiences continuous outflows for several days; price retraces to 59,000~62,000 undervalued zone, deepening the mid-term correction.

Long-term (monthly level)

BTC’s scarcity as digital gold remains unchanged, and the four-year halving cycle continues to be a long-term bullish factor. The optimal safe zone for long-term positioning is 50,000-62,000. The current price is at the lower end of the neutral valuation, suitable for phased small investments, not for full-position gambling on short-term surges. If it falls below 59,130 (the life line), long-term dollar-cost averaging should slow down, waiting for lower valuation zones to add positions.

III. Practical Trading Strategy

1. Long-term spot core holdings (hold over 6 months)
Small phased investments at current levels, adding every 3,000 points decline, with a unified long-term stop-loss at 59,000. When rebounding above 72,000, consider small profit-taking to reduce costs.
2. Short-term swing traders (hold 1~2 weeks)
Take profit and reduce positions on rebounds to 66,800-67,200. Set strict stop-loss at 63,900; exit immediately if broken. Short-term risk-reward ratio is low; avoid high leverage and heavy positions.
3. High-position deep trapped holdings (cost >80,000)
Prohibit adding at current prices to dilute average cost. During each rebound above 67,000, reduce positions gradually, decreasing total holdings. Wait for a dip below 59,000 to buy more at lower costs.
4. Cautious traders holding no positions
Short-term: small positions for testing longs near 63,900, with stop-loss at 63,000 and target at 67,000. Long-term: prioritize waiting for below 60,000 to start dollar-cost averaging, with higher safety margins.

IV. Key Risks Suppressing the Market

1. The Fed maintains high interest rates, the US dollar remains strong, suppressing the valuation of digital gold.
2. Long-term outflows from BTC spot ETFs, diminishing new buying interest.
3. Systemic correction in US stocks, risk assets collectively devalued, dragging BTC down in tandem.
4. Global tightening of crypto regulations, decreasing institutional allocation willingness.

BTC is essentially the heart of the entire crypto market cycle. Its underlying scarcity consensus remains solid, with no inherent flaws like token unlocks or revenue fragmentation common in altcoins. However, in the short term, market vitality is weak, continuously pressured by macro liquidity and capital outflows. According to clinical prudent logic, long-term investments should be phased and maintained, while aggressive short-term chasing is not advisable. Only a dip below 59,000, in the undervalued zone, presents a highly cost-effective window for long-term accumulation. I will continue to monitor Federal Reserve monetary policies, spot ETF fund flows, and on-chain accumulation data, updating market judgments and operational plans dynamically.