#沃什首秀美联储利率不变 The current rebound is only a temporary easing within the range driven by “seller sell-pressure exhaustion.” If the key support level of $59,200 is broken, it may further test down to the on-chain realized price of $54,000.

In the short term, focus on the Federal Reserve’s dot plot guidance on the interest rate hike path, the progress toward the final signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement (Hopes of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz), and the rollout of the regulatory implementation details for the U.S. “Clarity Act” in July. Whether the market can stabilize depends on whether institutional capital shifts from outflows to inflows; current liquidity contraction and macroeconomic pressures remain the dominant factors.