Two seemingly contradictory events happened at the same time: the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding officially took effect, substantially easing Middle East geopolitical risks; at the same time, the Federal Reserve has become more hawkish than three months ago.

This combination is quite surreal. The normal logic would be—geopolitical easing → oil prices fall → inflation pressures decrease → Fed becomes dovish. But the actual sequence is: geopolitical easing → oil prices indeed fall (WTI dropped from over 100 to the 80s) → CPI still at 4.2% → the labor market remains strong → the Fed instead feels "since there’s no external excuse anymore, it’s time to seriously tackle inflation."
So Warsh’s removal of the rate cut bias from the statement isn’t because he’s hawkish, but because he thinks "the previous dovish language was just an excuse for inflation."
Apple also has an interesting story—Cook announced after hours that they will raise prices, citing soaring memory and storage chip costs. The HDD shortage narrative is shifting from a "supply chain story" to a "terminal price increase reality." If Apple is raising prices due to chip costs, then the "supply shock" label for inflation is no longer something the Fed can just "look through."
Oil prices rebounded + EIA inventories have fallen for ten consecutive weeks to the lowest in 40 years—there might be another wave in the energy sector today. But don’t chase it; such geopolitical-driven rebounds are doubtful in their sustainability. #沃什首秀美联储利率不变
‍#Fed #通胀 #apple