June 18, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that the federal funds rate target range would remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive "hold steady."

However, what truly shook the markets was the hawkish stance demonstrated in the new Chair Powell's debut. This put short-term pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and could reshape the market logic in the medium to long term.

📉 Core of the decision: Hawkish signals "clear as day"

The "unchanged" in this meeting is only superficial; the real core changes are reflected in the following three points:

· Removal of rate cut guidance: The statement removed the previous language hinting at a future inclination to cut rates, abandoning forward guidance, and shifting policy stance to neutral leaning hawkish.
· Dot plot shift towards rate hikes: The dot plot shows the median forecast for the end of 2026 interest rate rising sharply from 3.4% in March to 3.8%. Among 18 officials who submitted forecasts, 9 expect at least one rate hike in 2026, with 6 expecting at least two hikes.
· Upward revision of inflation expectations: The 2026 PCE inflation forecast was raised significantly from 2.7% to 3.6%, acknowledging that inflation stickiness exceeds expectations.

📉 Immediate market reaction: risk assets "plunge"

Once the hawkish signals were released, the market responded immediately:

· The US dollar index surged.
· US Treasury yields soared, with the 2-year yield rising about 14-15 basis points, sensitive to policy.
· US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all declined simultaneously. Bitcoin briefly dropped over 1% after the announcement, hitting a low of about $64,600.

🔍 Deeper implications: shift in logic

Short-term price fluctuations are only superficial; the deeper impact lies in the change of the market's core logic:

· "Loose monetary narrative" ends: The narratives of "rate cut expectations" and "liquidity easing" that supported market gains over the past two years have been discredited by the official stance, and the market needs to find new pricing anchors.
· Market focus shifts: Once again proving that market reactions to "expectation gaps" are far greater than the rate decision itself. This "super hawkish" stance is the main reason for the sell-off.
· Global liquidity tightening: The Bank of Japan may also raise rates simultaneously, and the synchronized shift of the two major central banks will create a resonance of systemic tightening of global liquidity, making leverage environments more severe.

🔭 Future outlook

In the short term, the market still needs to digest Powell’s remarks in detail, and a volatile, slightly weak pattern is expected to persist.

The medium to long-term trend depends on two key variables:

· Inflation data: If subsequent CPI and other data show inflation under control, it may ease rate hike expectations; otherwise, it will further reinforce the hawkish stance.
· Powell’s new policy approach: He criticized the dot plot and established a working group to study the policy framework. The direction of his reforms will influence the market’s long-term trust and expectations of the Fed.

In summary, the Federal Reserve’s June 18, 2026 meeting marked an important watershed in the pricing logic of global risk assets. The years-long "easy money feast" is coming to an end, and a new cycle led by a hawkish Fed, with higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, may have already begun. #我的Gate交易时刻