Bitcoin 64,700-65,200 rebound is a trap; Ethereum 1,770-1,800 short target is 1,650—Deep analysis of the June 18 morning strategy

Early morning at 66,400, the trap was perfectly stopped out with a profit of over 1,300 points, and currently Bitcoin is oscillating around the 64,000-65,000 range. The daily Bollinger Bands continue to converge, with the 65,500 key dividing line between bulls and bears. Combined with macro factors such as the Fed’s increased expectation of rate cuts in June and continuous ETF fund outflows, the logic of the morning rebound trap strategy is clear, with targets directly at 63,000 and 1,650.

1. Review of the early morning trap: mindset determines the way out, friends who follow along enjoy the gains

Yesterday early morning, we decisively positioned at 66,400 for the trap, and the subsequent market perfectly followed a downward trend, with the lowest touch near 63,900. We comfortably took over 1,300 points and exited with profits. This is not luck, but precise grasp of the market structure—it's not that the market is hard to trade, but whether you can handle this wave.

Friends who followed, did you enjoy the gains from this move?

2. Current market structure: clear signals of oscillation and shakeout, bulls lack willingness to chase high

Daily level: Bollinger Bands converging, 65,500 is the dividing line between bulls and bears

From the daily perspective, Bollinger Bands are continuously converging, with the midline at 65,500 forming a critical intra-day bull-bear dividing line. Only if it stabilizes above this can we see potential for further rebound; otherwise, a break below will keep testing the lower support. The daily chart shows a pattern of rising and falling, with obvious upper shadow pressure, indicating that bulls’ willingness to chase high is severely lacking—classic shakeout signals.

Hourly level: oscillating downward, rebound lacks volume

At the hourly level, Bollinger Bands are slightly opening downward, with small bearish candles arranged in a downward oscillation. Rebound volume is lacking, indicating weak bullish support. Every small rebound is quickly suppressed by bears, showing a market lacking effective buying support, and the bearish dominance remains unchanged.

3. Macro support: Fed rate cut expectations in June + ETF fund outflows, clear bearish logic

1. Fed rate cut expectations in June are heating up, but the market has priced it in early

According to latest data, the US employment market continues to cool, and the market has rapidly increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in June 2026 from 5% to 99%. Goldman Sachs previously predicted a 25 basis point rate cut by June 2026. However, the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in, and actual implementation might trigger profit-taking.

2. ETF fund outflows continue, institutional confidence wavers

Since mid-May, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced continuous fund outflows, losing a total of $1.55 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT experiencing a single-day outflow of $448 million. The withdrawal of institutional funds directly reflects a cooling risk appetite, which aligns with the current weak rebound performance.

3. Bitcoin remains in a narrow consolidation zone between $67,000 and $75,000

Bitcoin’s price currently stays within a narrow range of $67,000 to $75,000, with ETF inflows being absorbed by continuous supply, lacking the momentum for a decisive breakout. Until macro sentiment shows a clear shift, this "toping out and bottoming out" pattern is likely to continue.

4. Morning operation strategy: rebound is a trap, targets are clear

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Shorting range: 64,700-65,200

• Target: near 63,000

• Stop-loss reference: above 65,800

Logic: The daily midline at 65,500 is under pressure, hourly rebound volume is weak, combined with macro factors such as ETF outflows and fully priced-in rate cut expectations, a rebound to 64,700-65,200 is an ideal trap setup. If it effectively breaks below 64,000, further downside opens, and the 63,000 support will face testing.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Shorting range: 1,770-1,800

• Target: near 1,650

• Stop-loss reference: above 1,830

Logic: Ethereum’s trend is weaker than Bitcoin, with ETH/BTC pair remaining under pressure. The 1,770-1,800 zone has been tested multiple times as resistance. A rebound into this trap targets 1,650 psychological level. If Bitcoin breaks below 63,000, Ethereum is likely to follow and test below 1,600.

5. Risk tips and position management

1. Strict stop-loss: all strategies can fail; 65,800 (BTC) and 1,830 (ETH) are key levels between bullish and bearish. If broken above, exit decisively.

2. Position control: recommend not exceeding 20% of total funds per trade to avoid heavy positions.

3. Watch macro news: if there are speeches from Fed officials or sudden ETF fund flow changes in the evening, adjust strategies promptly.

Conclusion: The market is never short of opportunities; what’s lacking is the eye to spot them and the discipline to execute strategies. The early morning trap at 66,400 has proven that with the right mindset, success is simple. Rebound is a trap—friends who follow, keep #我的Gate交易时刻 enjoying the gains!