Last night's summary:

Last night, the Fed was not "dovish pause," but rather a hawkish pause.
Key points:
1. Interest rates unchanged
The FOMC unanimously decided to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%.
2. Inflation becomes the main focus again
The statement said inflation remains above the 2% target, partly due to supply shocks, especially energy and other price pressures. The SEP significantly raised the inflation forecast for 2026:
• PCE: 2.7% → 3.6%
• Core PCE: 2.7% → 3.3%
3. The economy is not weak enough to justify rate cuts
The Fed believes the economy is still expanding at a "solid pace," with employment keeping pace with labor growth, and unemployment rates remaining stable. The 2026 GDP forecast was slightly revised down to 2.2%, but this is not a recession scenario.
4. Dot plot clearly more hawkish
The median federal funds rate at the end of 2026 rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March. This means:
• Rate cuts this year are basically off the table
• Half of the committee even considers possibly raising rates once more within the year
5. Middle East/energy risks included in the statement
This time, special mention was made of the uncertainties and energy supply shocks brought by the Middle East conflict, indicating the Fed now does not simply view rising oil prices as a "one-off factor" that can be ignored.
Market interpretation:
Unfavorable for risk assets in the short term. Because this is not a signal of "waiting a few months to cut rates," but rather "inflation risks have returned, and the Fed wants to keep the option to raise rates again."
For crypto, unless oil prices fall back and CPI/PCE cool down quickly later, US Treasury yields and the dollar will continue to suppress high beta assets.