Early morning of the 18th Federal Reserve meeting core remarks/decision key points (overall significantly hawkish)

1. Interest rate remains unchanged: benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%, the fourth consecutive hold, in line with surface market expectations.
2. Dot plot fully hawkish (biggest bearish signal) - Out of 18 forecast officials, 9 expect rate hikes within 2026, half support tightening; only 1 expects cuts. - The median rate forecast for the end of 2026 is raised from 3.4% to 3.75%, directly offsetting the full-year rate cut expectations, and the market begins pricing in a higher probability of a rate hike in September.
3. Inflation expectations significantly raised: 2026 core PCE inflation forecast raised to 3.3% (March only 2.7%), acknowledging persistent inflation, with a return to 2% target only by 2028, clearly prioritizing inflation suppression and delaying easing.
4. Policy statement removes easing hints and simplifies wording, removing "leaning towards rate cuts," instead emphasizing balanced risks, no longer giving markets easing expectations, and stating that everything depends on inflation data, with rate hikes ready to restart at any time.
Economic assessment: Slightly lowered GDP growth, employment remains strong, no recession pressure, providing the Fed with confidence to maintain high interest rates.

II. Impact on global stock markets: overall bearish, structural divergence
1. US stocks (directly pressured) - Bearish logic: prolonged high rates, increased risk of rate hikes this year, rising US bond yields, suppressing high-valued AI and tech growth stocks. - Immediate market feedback: after the decision, US stock futures surged then fell back, Nasdaq and S&P 500 fluctuated weaker; high valuation growth stocks were sold off, only high-dividend defensive sectors held relatively steady.
2. A-shares/Hong Kong stocks (short-term bearish, internal divergence)
Bearish directions:
- High valuation growth stocks such as ChiNext, semiconductors, AI, new energy: global discount rates rise, foreign investor risk appetite declines, northbound capital inflow slows or even phases out in the short term.
- Hong Kong tech stocks: offshore markets are highly sensitive to US dollar interest rates, liquidity tightening suppresses valuations.
Relatively bullish/hedging directions:
- High dividend sectors: banks, utilities, dividend assets, capital flocking for risk aversion;
- Export manufacturing: US dollar strengthening, RMB passively depreciating slightly, benefiting manufacturing with high overseas revenue share;
- Gold and non-ferrous metals: inflation stickiness expectations support precious metals from falling sharply.

III. Summary qualitative analysis
1. Overall tone: strongly hawkish, bearish on risk assets, maintaining interest rates unchanged on the surface, but dot plot, inflation forecasts, and policy wording fully tighten, breaking the previous market optimism of "rate cuts in the second half," extending the global high-liquidity tightening cycle.
2. Short-term trading impact:
- US dollar and US bond yields are more likely to rise than fall;
- Economic data offset external pressures, but from a purely external liquidity perspective, the outlook is somewhat negative.