#BitcoinBouncesBack

I. Fed Decision: interest rate unchanged, dot plot unexpectedly hawkish

June 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously (12 votes "for", 0 "against") decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%–3.75%. This is the fourth consecutive meeting where the rate remains unchanged. The last rate cut occurred in December 2025.

However, the main intrigue was not in the rate decision itself, but in the dot plot and the accompanying statement.

The dot plot shifted sharply toward a "hawkish" stance. Out of 19 officials, 18 provided their forecasts (presumably, Fed Chair Powell did not submit his SEP). Nine officials expect at least one rate hike this year, eight forecast no change, and only one still expects a cut. The median forecast for the end of 2026 increased from 3.4% to 3.8%.

Inflation projections were significantly revised upward. The expected core PCE inflation rate for 2026 was raised from 2.7% to 3.3%, and the overall PCE from 2.7% to 3.6%.

The Fed statement was reduced by 70%, with "dovish" language removed. The current statement contains only 130 words compared to 341 words in April. All references to future policy easing were eliminated, and a clear commitment to "ensuring price stability" was added. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos called this the first shift in the Worsh era – from "patiently waiting for a rate cut" to "data-dependent with a willingness to hike if necessary."

Market reaction: after the decision was announced, Bitcoin fell nearly 1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices declined about 1%. The probability of a rate hike at the July meeting increased to 18%.
$BTC
II. Bitcoin technical analysis: fight for key support amid hawkish signals

1. Overall picture

As of the screenshot time (June 17), BTC/USDT is trading at $64,362.2, down 2.09% over 24 hours. The daily high was $66,440.0, the low – $64,020.0. Trading volume is 15,070 BTC, turnover approximately $984 million USDT.

2. Bollinger Bands (BOLL 20,2): price at the middle line, direction choice close

Indicator Value
Upper band (UB) 67,102.9
Middle band (MB) 64,010.2
Lower band (LB) 60,917.4

The current price of $64,362.2 is only $352 above the middle band (64,010). This is a typical narrow range – a breakout is inevitable. The Parabolic SAR (67,166.4) is above the price, continuing to signal bearishness.

3. MACD (12,26,9): bullish momentum waning, risk of "death cross"

MACD histogram = 460.4, DEA = -305.7. Although MACD remains above zero, the bars are shrinking, indicating weakening buying pressure. As the lines converge and a "death cross" (descending crossover) forms, the short-term trend will turn fully bearish.

4. KDJ (9,3,3): all lines in the bear zone

K = 118.9, D = 119.7, J = -16.6. The J value has entered negative territory – a sign of oversold conditions, but the K and D lines have already formed a "death cross" from above and continue to decline, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

5. RSI: all periods below 50

Period Value
RSI(6) 39.3
RSI(12) 44.8
RSI(24) 40.8

All three RSI periods are below the bullish-bearish threshold of 50, with the short-term RSI(6) falling below 40. The daily RSI(14) also remains below 50, showing no strength.

6. Key levels and scenarios

Resistance levels:

· First resistance: 66,750–67,300 (Bollinger upper band on 4-hour chart + yesterday’s high)
· Main resistance: 70,800–71,100 (daily MA20 + Fibonacci correction level 0.618–0.786)

Support levels:

· First support: 64,800–65,000 (consolidation center on hourly chart)
· Critical support: 64,000–64,200 – the starting point of the current rebound. If the 4-hour chart closes below this level, the correction scenario will be fully invalidated.
· Monthly strong support: 61,800–62,000

Following the hawkish FOMC outcome, the market is moving toward the third scenario: if support at 64,000 is broken, the nearest target is 61,800, and in an extreme case, the range of 59,000–60,000.

III. Summary

The Fed, in its first meeting under Worsh’s leadership, made a sharp turn from "doves" to "hawks" – the rate officially remained unchanged, but the dot plot, inflation forecasts, and the language of the statement collectively signal readiness to hike rates in the second half of the year. For Bitcoin, the current level of $64,000 is the main threshold between correction and new decline. Tightening monetary policy creates short-term pressure on risky assets. It is recommended to closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East and upcoming inflation data, which will determine the Fed’s next steps.