June 18, 2026 04:00

Market overview: Bitcoin has fallen back from above 65,500 to around 64,200, with contract funding leaning towards defensive; the Federal Reserve remains on hold but the dot plot shows hawkish signals, crude oil has retreated due to easing tensions in the Middle East, with a potential gain of about 23, risk appetite has recovered but not blindly bullish. This morning, only strong-weak stratification is considered, no chasing before confirmation.

Referencing 71.5, down about 3.1% over 24 hours, from 74.3 to 71.36 in 15 minutes, funding rate is slightly negative. Support levels are at 71.35/70.80, a break below 71.35 suggests shorting with the trend, target 70.80/69.90, reduce positions at 70.80, stop loss at 72.15; only if it stabilizes above 72.40 and retests without breaking can we lightly look for 73.10/74.00 on the long side.

Referencing 0.728, up about 11.6% over 24 hours, after a high of 0.803 intraday, it has pulled back, still strong but with heavy turnover at high levels. Support at 0.723/0.712, only go long if it retests 0.723 without breaking and recovers above 0.736, target 0.746/0.765, reduce at 0.746, stop loss at 0.718; if it breaks below 0.712, the structure fails, short targeting 0.700/0.686, stop loss at 0.724.

Referencing 0.713, down about 10.2% over 24 hours, in 1 hour it was pushed down from 0.82, a rebound that fails to break 0.726 remains weak. Resistance at 0.726/0.739, support at 0.711/0.700; retest below 0.726 on the downside suggests shorting, target 0.700/0.688, reduce near 0.700, stop loss at 0.734. If volume pushes back above 0.739, shorts retreat, wait for a retest of 0.733 for confirmation before targeting 0.755.

This is only personal trading notes and does not constitute investment advice.