Fed Holds Rates Under New Chair Warsh – Hawkish Turn at June FOMC

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% during its June 16-17 meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first as Chair. The vote was unanimous 12-0.
Key takeaways:
• Economic activity remains solid, but inflation stays elevated, partly due to energy price shocks from Middle East tensions.
• The FOMC statement was shortened and removed all previous dovish forward guidance.
• Dot plot shifted hawkish: Median projection now points to a 25bp rate hike by end-2026 (9 members forecast hikes). PCE inflation forecasts were raised sharply.
This represents a clear change from earlier rate cut expectations toward a more cautious, data-dependent stance.
Impact on crypto: Short-term volatility likely as USD and yields may stay supported. Risk assets could face pressure if the Fed continues signaling higher rates for longer.
Watch upcoming CPI data and geopolitical developments closely.
DYOR. This is not financial advice.
What do you think — will cuts still happen later this year or is the Fed turning more hawkish?