The Federal Reserve will officially hold interest rates unchanged tonight, with the target range staying at 3.50%–3.75%. This result is broadly in line with expectations, so the short-term impact from the decision itself won’t be very large. But keeping rates unchanged doesn’t mean there’s nothing to trade in the market—the real variables lie in the wording of the press conference, adjustments to the dot plot, and the Fed’s statements on inflation, employment, and the future rate path. The tone is hawkish, or it suggests that high rates will need to remain in place for longer, leaving risk assets under pressure.

Now, what the market fears most isn’t “no rate cut,” but that the Fed, even though it won’t raise rates, will continue to tell you not to fantasize about easing yet—liquidity hasn’t reached the point where it truly turns.

So don’t just focus on the decision itself tonight. Keeping rates unchanged is only the first layer; what truly determines the direction is how the market re-prices liquidity expectations. No rate cut doesn’t mean a negative outcome has already landed.
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