The Fed, in its first meeting led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, kept the policy interest rate steady within the 3.50% - 3.75% range, in line with market expectations.

The meeting statement, dot plot, and the potential market impacts of these decisions are summarized as follows:
Dot Plot and Highlights
Expectations for Rate Cuts Delayed: While projections in March indicated at least one rate cut this year, the updated dot plot shifted the median expectation to no rate cuts this year.
The "Easing" Trend Has Ended: The Fed adopted a more neutral stance by removing the phrase "further adjustments" that hinted at future rate cuts from the decision statement.
Even the possibility of a rate hike toward the end of the year (like in December) was included due to inflation concerns.
New Chair’s Style and Uncertainty: New Chair Warsh is known for being cautious about the Fed providing too much forward guidance and for being distant from the dot plot.
This has led to greater divergence among members’ forecasts (a more scattered graph structure).
How Might This Affect Markets?
US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bonds: The Fed’s decision to hold off on rate cuts and adopt a hawkish/neutral tone supports the US Dollar Index and the yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds to move higher.
Stock Markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq): In the short term, the end of rate cut expectations and strong economic data (especially retail sales in May) could cause some selling pressure or volatility in stocks.
However, a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran and easing oil prices could partially offset this pressure.
Gold and Precious Metals: Persistently high interest rates and a strengthening dollar may put short-term downward pressure on gold prices, which do not yield interest.
Emerging Markets (including Turkey): The Fed’s signal to keep interest rates high for an extended period could somewhat limit risk appetite in emerging markets and exert slight global pressure on local currencies.
Summary: The Fed has temporarily closed the door on rate cuts amid strong employment and inflation concerns.
Markets will now focus less on "when will rates fall?" and more on the new Chair’s unpredictable communication style and geopolitical developments.