England vs Croatia: The Grid Army Actually Isn't Doing Well Now, England's First Win Will Be Quite Easy

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2026 World Cup, Group L First Match
2026.06.18 04:00, England vs Croatia
Score Prediction: England 2:0, 2:1, 1:0 Croatia (win-win, draw-win) (England: win; Sports Lottery -1: win & draw)
In the group stage, focus mainly on wins, draws, losses, or handicap directions; scores and half/full-time results are secondary!
Such a matchup naturally makes all fans recall the 2018 semi-finals—back then, the Three Lions had a dream start, with Trippier’s quick goal giving them the lead within 5 minutes, but Croatia played to the extreme resilience in that World Cup—Perisic’s equalizer in the 68th minute, Mandzukic’s decisive goal in the 109th minute of extra time, ultimately allowing Croatia to reach the final and finish as runners-up;
For these two teams, they are actually quite familiar with each other—since 1996, they have faced each other in various competitions up to 11 times. Since the 2018 World Cup, they have also met multiple times in the World Cup, UEFA Nations League, and European Championship. Among these, England has undoubtedly been the absolute winner, with a record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in regular 90-minute matches, and in their last 6 encounters, England remains undefeated with 4 wins and 2 draws.
So, based on this situation, England is actually the most likely winner of this match— but, perhaps not necessarily!
On the European and World qualifiers stage, England is stable and terrifying—winning all 8 matches, even without conceding a single goal, with a total goal difference of 22:0, which looks quite intimidating, right?
However, because it’s a qualifier, the results should be viewed from two perspectives—the advantage is that England’s stability has been demonstrated in such matchups. This also means that, even if the Three Lions struggle offensively and can’t break through, they won’t completely collapse or be overwhelmed by their opponents;
But the downside is—qualifiers are not very high-stakes! Whether it’s Albania, Latvia, or Andorra, they don’t really prove how strong the current Three Lions are.
So, who will prove the team’s strength?
Amazon’s statistics show that since Tuchel took charge, England has faced three of the top 20 teams in the world, but they have yet to taste victory. England hasn’t completely given up on these three matches, though they might not have taken them too seriously, but from the fact that they haven’t beaten strong opponents, it might reveal that England’s true strength in high-stakes matches still needs testing.
According to Opta’s prediction, England is still the more likely winner—England wins, 55.9%; Croatia wins, 20.8%; both teams draw, 23.3%.
Statistics show that England has a record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 8 World Cup opening matches, with a 1-2 loss to Italy in 2014. Croatia’s record in their first matches is 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses (over the last 5 tournaments).
However, although Croatia’s first-match results are not good, an undeniable fact is that in the past two World Cups, they at least reached the semi-finals—showing resilience in the group stage with 4 wins, 2 draws, and only 2 goals conceded in 6 matches.
So, why does Opta not favor the Grid Army to win this match despite their stability? In the 2024 European Championship, Croatia’s aging was already quite evident—the group stage ended with 2 draws and 1 loss, with a goal difference of 3:6, which directly caused them to miss out on qualification.
Therefore, Croatia in this World Cup doesn’t have many new talents—can they still create miracles? Probably not!
England
The main task for England to restrict Croatia is to contain Modric—if Rice or Bellingham and other players can give continuous marking and harassment to Modric, it will undoubtedly be the main strategy to control the opponent in this match;
Because of this, this match can almost be regarded as a midfield dominance contest—of course, to enhance the organization, progression, and even direct passes in the midfield, Tuchel can also utilize Kane’s dropping back ability to strengthen the team’s midfield and attack, while also delivering precise passes to the front.
In this scenario, the key for England is actually their scoring ability in front of the goal—whether it’s Saka, or Gordon or Rashford on the left, or possibly Bellingham pushing forward from the back.
For England, if they want to get three points from Croatia, their overall rhythm must not be too slow—after all, this is the pace that the “aging” Modric prefers, but it’s actually not conducive to England’s performance!
Croatia
Despite injuries, Croatia still relies mainly on Modric, Kovacic, Gvardiol, and Kramaric. But beyond that, Croatia really doesn’t have many other options.
This also means that their main tactic in a defensive battle might be to slow down the opponent and then suddenly accelerate through their own control of the rhythm. Besides, Modric’s long shots and threats from set pieces will also be part of Croatia’s tactics.
However, overall, Croatia is no longer the team from 2018, and this makes the Grid Army seem to lack the advantages or initiative to dominate against England.
So, although this might seem somewhat disrespectful to Croatia, in reality, if Croatia doesn’t exhaust too much energy or let the opponent score more goals, it will leave them opportunities to face Ghana and Panama later.