At 2 a.m., Wosh makes his debut, and the market unanimously bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged!

First, clarify the two core fundamentals:

1. On Friday, the US, Iran, and Switzerland finalized a reconciliation memorandum, and the original geopolitical speculation logic for crude oil directly failed. Plus, after a 48-hour continuous decline in the market, the bearish selling pressure has been released, and gold and cryptocurrencies are about to enter an emotional recovery window!
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2. The rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank only slightly stirred liquidity; in the short term, there's no need to worry, keeping an eye on U.S. market data is the key.

Tonight, focus on whether Wosh's speech leans dovish or hawkish! Former President Trump previously called for rate cuts, but Wosh has always been tactful and cautious, and all policy changes depend on subsequent data, without giving clear signals.

Long-term forecast: If the Middle East remains stable in the second half of the year, crude oil supply stays smooth, inflation cools rapidly, and by year's end, rate hike expectations will be zero, with rate cut expectations rising; but it's too early to talk about rate cuts now, and without sustained stable data, the Fed won't act.

Friends, this is the opportunity to start eating the big meat.