Tonight's decision-making meeting, around 2 o'clock there will be a wave of downward plunges and sharp drops, mainly triggering bullish momentum...

Below are three core fundamental data points supporting the "tonight's decision leaning bearish":
1. Inflation rebound and "expectation of rate cuts wiped out"
Keeping interest rates steady is a clear signal: CME data shows that the market has priced in a 99.6% probability of maintaining the current 3.50% - 3.75% interest rate tonight.
The main bearish factor is the update to the "dot plot": US CPI in May unexpectedly rebounded to 4.2% (mainly due to geopolitical tensions and soaring energy prices). Therefore, Wall Street generally expects that the latest economic projections (SEP) released tonight will completely erase the "one rate cut in 2026" expectation reserved in March.
Rate hike concerns reignited: Major banks like Goldman Sachs have pushed back their first rate cut expectation to mid-2027. More pessimistically, the latest fund manager survey by US Bank shows that up to 40% of respondents believe that rates may be raised again within the next 12 months. This reversal of expectations is a direct blow to market bullish sentiment.
2. The end of Powell's era and the "hawkish stance" of the new chair
Tonight is the first FOMC meeting hosted by the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh since his appointment, bringing significant policy uncertainty:
Removing dovish tendencies: institutions expect Warsh to formally delete the previous language about "possible rate cuts" in the policy statement.
Reducing forward guidance: Warsh advocates a "less is more" communication strategy, possibly no longer providing clear pathway guidance like during Powell's tenure, and may even refuse to leave his own "dot" on the dot plot. For crypto markets heavily reliant on liquidity expectations, this tough and cold stance on inflation will further suppress risk appetite.
3. Market game and liquidity liquidation
The script tonight (early morning hours of the next day, 2:00 to 2:30) is: during the decision announcement and press conference, quantitative trading institutions are highly likely to use the "hawkish" data from the dot plot as an excuse to sell. The market is prone to a "sell the news" pressure, with sharp plunges to liquidate bullish leverage.
Against the macro backdrop shifting from "expecting rate cuts" to "long-term anti-inflation," the short-term market is likely to face downward pressure. Giving up on the hope of a "dovish surprise," waiting patiently for macro sentiment to be fully released and the market structure to stabilize before making trading decisions is the safer choice. $BTC #Gate现货交易量增幅全球第一