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Tonight at 2:00 AM, Powell's debut, will the Federal Reserve keep interest rates unchanged? How to respond?
Before that, you need to be clear:
①This Friday, the US, Iran, and Switzerland signed a memorandum of understanding, which is more of an emotional boost, coupled with recent market crashes, so the local conflict basis for long positions in crude oil has dissipated, and gold and cryptocurrencies are expected to see a mood improvement.
②Yesterday, the People's Bank of China and the previous European Central Bank rate hikes had a slight impact on liquidity in Europe and America, but the effect was not significant. Short-term traders can ignore this, focusing on North American data for the medium term.
Tonight at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, mainly watch whether Powell's speech is dovish or hawkish?
Previously, Trump supported Powell, hoping for a rate cut. Tonight, the usual routine is expected in Powell's speech: the rate decision depends on the continued stability of the data, playing both sides.
If in the second half of the year, the US-Iran conflict does not escalate and the global crude oil channels remain open, inflation data can be well controlled. At that time, the probability of rate hikes by the end of the year will gradually decrease to zero or even shift to rate cuts. But it’s too early to talk about rate cuts now; all decisions depend on sustained stable data.
So tonight, after nearly 48 hours of continuous decline, at a critical moment, all the drops should be seen as entry opportunities and initial positions for long trades.
For example, today's strategy's hanging order may not be filled, but keep it there for now. If an aggressive position has a chance to break through, observe the volume reversal signals in the aggressive zone to decide when to act!
Don't be overly pessimistic; control your positions and stay optimistic! #美联储利率决议即将到来