Long-term holders' share of BTC has reached a historic high of 79%, and the number of coins that have been dormant on the chain for over two years has also dropped to an unusually low level. K33 researcher says this suggests the bear market is nearing its end, but Wintermute and Glassnode simultaneously warn: ETF capital flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand are not enough to confirm a reversal.

This data itself is correct, but those interpreting it tend to overlook a structural issue — a high proportion of long-term holders does not mean selling pressure has disappeared, but rather that the selling pressure is concentrated in fewer hands. Once these holders decide to exit, the market’s absorption capacity could be more fragile than expected.
More worth noting is that Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has approached 0.6, and tonight’s FOMC meeting will be the real stress test. In the past 8 FOMC meetings, Bitcoin has clearly declined 7 times; if rate expectations are re-priced again this time, how long can the “steadfastness” of long-term holders last?
On-chain data is a thermometer, not a crystal ball. A 79% holding rate can be explained as reluctance to sell, or as a liquidity trap — the key is whether the macro environment allows these coins to remain inactive indefinitely.
$btc #defi #Stablecoins #etf #On-chain data