QCP analysis states that the United States and Iran have reached a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), signaling the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil to fall below $75, and the market beginning to price in a reduced risk of energy supply disruptions. Despite improved macro risk sentiment, BTC remains constrained below $66k, partly due to market concerns that Strategy may need to sell more Bitcoin to pay dividends. Strategy has repurchased $1.5 billion of 2029 convertible preferred notes and raised approximately $200 million by selling MSTR stock to continue buying BTC, with its cash runway for dividend payments currently about 7.5 months. QCP believes that in the short term, this pressure may continue to limit BTC from fully benefiting from macro optimism.