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Analysis: The easing of US-Iran tensions boosts risk assets, but Bitcoin remains constrained by specific selling pressure factors
Deep Tide TechFlow News, June 17 — QCP Group's latest market commentary states that the United States and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding (MOU) over the weekend, with the market expecting the Strait of Hormuz to resume navigation, marginally easing geopolitical risks and driving a general rally in risk assets. S&P 500 futures opened more than 100 points higher and broke through historical highs, while oil prices retreated below $75 per barrel, reflecting a decrease in market pricing for energy supply disruption risks.
The report also notes that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will face his first policy test at this rate-setting meeting since taking office. Against the backdrop of rising oil prices driven by US-Iran tensions, US inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in over three years. The market has already priced in a 0.5 percentage point rate hike by 2026, with investors focusing on the dot plot and the Fed's stance on future policy paths.
In the stock market, SpaceX's stock price surged significantly after going public, reaching as high as $225, nearly 65% above the $135 offering price, with a market capitalization ranking fifth globally. QCP believes that the low float combined with strong institutional and retail demand continues to support the stock's performance, but the current rally has accelerated notably.
Regarding crypto assets, despite a macro environment turning relatively favorable, Bitcoin has yet to break through $66k. QCP states that one of the suppressing factors is Strategy's repurchase of its 2029 convertible bonds, raising concerns that it may need to continue selling Bitcoin or issuing shares to meet dividend payment obligations. Although the company has raised approximately $200 million through the sale of MSTR shares and continues to increase Bitcoin holdings with the proceeds, this short-term uncertainty may still limit Bitcoin's ability to follow macro risk appetite higher.