Elon Musk's net worth surpasses Bitcoin's market value! But SpaceX's unlock in August and selling pressure cannot be ignored.

SpaceX goes public and surges 42% in two days, closing at $192.46. Scarcity of shares pushes market cap beyond $2.5 trillion, but the first wave of unlocks starting in August will be a severe test for SpaceX's stock price, which has not yet established a deep liquidity foundation.

• Crypto City Note: The original publication date of this article is 6/16; the SpaceX options mentioned have already been listed.

In just two trading days since going public, SpaceX's stock price has skyrocketed over 42%, with Elon Musk earning more in a single day than Warren Buffett's entire career earnings. As SPCX options are expected to officially list on Cboe tonight, the market is closely watching whether short squeeze dynamics will continue to drive the stock price higher.

SpaceX up 42% in two days! Musk's net worth surpasses Bitcoin market value

On Friday, SpaceX rose 20% in a single day, and on Monday, it jumped another 20%, closing at $192.46. Market cap broke through $2.5 trillion, surpassing TSMC to become the sixth most valuable company globally.

The surge in SPCX also propelled Musk's wealth to unprecedented heights, making him the world's first trillion-dollar billionaire. His net worth now exceeds Bitcoin's total market value, with a single-day increase surpassing Warren Buffett's entire career profits and Bill Gates' entire net worth.

Limited float of only 5%, signs of a rally in SPCX

The rapid rise of SpaceX's stock price in a short period is due to its share structure. Independent analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera pointed out that only about 640 million shares are actually circulating in the market, less than 5% of total shares, with the remaining 95% locked up, and the earliest unlock is not until about 67 days later in August.

It is this small float of shares that has driven the stock price to increase over 40% in just two trading days. Synthetix growth lead Tom Mitchelhill believes that with the largest shareholder being a world-class billionaire, highly concentrated shareholding, and no recent unlock pressure, the chances for bears to succeed are quite limited.

Options listing tonight, gamma squeeze may further fuel the rally

Meanwhile, SPCX options will officially start trading on Cboe tonight, with market attention on the potential "gamma squeeze" effect. A gamma squeeze occurs when a large number of investors buy call options, forcing market makers to hedge by continuously buying SpaceX shares in the spot market. This action further pushes up the stock price, attracting more call buyers, creating a positive feedback loop of buying and rising prices.

Daniel Roos, founder of options analysis platform VolSignals, stated: "I've seen many discussions predicting a gamma squeeze." In the context of extremely thin circulating supply and newly opened options markets, every hedge trade by market makers impacts the stock price and volatility.

It is worth noting that Tesla's options market also experienced a similar mechanism, creating astonishing gains driven by retail investors, and SpaceX's momentum is even more impressive.

• Related report: SpaceX's first options listing! 1.8 million contracts traded on opening day, gamma squeeze boosts stock rally

Selling pressure concerns emerge; August unlocks pose a significant challenge

However, behind the FOMO sentiment, market risks also exist. Shanaka Anslem Perera warned: the five analysts who issued reports on SpaceX's stock have an average fair value of only $164, nearly $28 below Monday's close, with the most pessimistic target as low as $63. Fundamentals are also under pressure—SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion loss last year, and its current stock price implies a P/E ratio of 135 based on sales, fueling ongoing valuation bubble doubts.

Additionally, the initial unlock in August is expected to release supply equivalent to 4 to 6 times the current float. If a large sell-off occurs, it will be a severe test for SpaceX's stock price, which has yet to establish a solid liquidity foundation. Balancing short-term momentum with preparations for the supply shock from the unlock will be a core challenge for investors entering the market.

• This article is reprinted with permission from 《Chain News》
• Original title: 《Elon Musk's net worth surpasses Bitcoin market value! SpaceX options listing tonight to continue driving stock price higher?》
• Original author: Crumax