While waiting for someone at the subway transfer station in the afternoon, the flow of people was rapid, information screens flickering, and the broadcast repeatedly playing delay alerts.



I was looking at the charts at the time.

After ETH was suppressed from a high level earlier, it has now moved into the retracement zone below 1800, with a clear rhythm: not a sharp plunge, but a gradual slowdown.

The most interesting part of this trend is that it doesn't give you confirmation points, only hesitation.

Once you hesitate, you miss the rhythm.

That high-level short position earlier actually received feedback from the market — it’s not a one-sided crash, but a gradual decline with a fading sentiment, gradually draining emotional strength.

Many people were still waiting for a rebound at that time, but the structure had already changed.

The market isn’t about proving you right, but about showing who still insists on the old judgment.

Looking back today, the high-level short positions we’ve been maintaining for the past couple of days are in line with expectations; at least, the rhythm hasn’t deviated.

A friend on the platform found me and said that recently many people are starting to have disagreements — some continue to short, others begin to bottom fish.

I said that’s very normal; when the market reaches the end of a correction, it’s always the most chaotic phase.

Because everyone is using “what just happened” to judge “what will happen next.”

But the market hates emotional continuation the most.

Now ETH has moved from a high-level suppression into a low-level test zone after the correction extension; the focus is no longer on whether to short or not, but on whether the structure can be repaired.

So today, I switched my thinking directly.

Ethereum started trying to go long in the 1735–1720 range.

This position is essentially the emotional release zone from the previous decline; if the market is going to repair, it won’t take too long — either a direct rebound or a further dip to confirm the bottom.

So, the logic of this trade is very simple:

I will buy ETH in batches at 1735–1720, not betting on a reversal, only on a repair phase. $ETH

Stop loss is set at 1680; if it breaks below this level, it indicates the structure isn’t repairing but expanding, and I must admit I was wrong and exit.

Target 1780–1810–1840.

For Bitcoin, I also suggest going long at 64200–63600, with a stop at 62800, and targets at 65800–66500–67200.

A key point is that this long position isn’t opposite to the previous short, but a continuation of the same structure.

Earlier, we were in the suppression phase with the trend, now we’re in the repair game after the correction.

The real difficulty in the market isn’t the direction, but the phase transition.

Additionally, pay close attention to 2 a.m., when the new Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver his first rate decision speech since taking office. This debut will directly signal the future monetary policy stance, and expectations for dollar liquidity, rate hikes, or cuts will be realized accordingly. It will have a huge impact on the short-term trend of mainstream cryptocurrencies. The market is likely to be highly volatile tonight, dominated by this decision, so stay closely tuned to the latest news.
ETH-1.53%
BTC-2.59%
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