#Marvell大跌近10% Reasons for the Sharp Drop in U.S. Optical Communications Stocks

Last night, the U.S. optical communications sector collectively plummeted: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) -10.83%, Lumentum -9.44%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) -7.6%, Coherent -7.1%, Corning -5.2%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell sharply by 5.71%, with all hardware computing power stocks experiencing declines.
1. Immediate Trigger: Delayed release of SemiAnalysis's bearish research report, causing panic selling among funds
On June 9, a major industry report was released by SemiAnalysis, a reputable overseas semiconductor institution. After a week of full institutional debate and fund rebalancing, the market fully realized pessimistic expectations on the evening of June 16, which became the core catalyst for this large decline:
The large-scale commercialization delay of CPO (co-packaged optical) significantly impacted the market, which originally expected 2026–2027 to be the year of CPO commercialization, with Google, Microsoft, and NVIDIA expected to purchase co-packaged optical engines and 1.6T high-end optical modules in bulk. However, the report estimates that: current CPO optical engine yield rates are extremely low, integration difficulty is high, and overall costs far exceed traditional pluggable optical modules. Mass production is pushed back directly to 2028–2029, with only small-scale pilots in the next two years, unable to contribute large-scale performance growth, directly shattering the high-growth valuation logic for the sector36Kr.
NVIDIA’s 800VDC high-voltage server power supply plan also delayed to 2028. NVIDIA’s new Rubin Ultra and Kyber AI servers are highly tied to the 800V power architecture, and this delay means the shipment of supporting high-end optical interconnect devices will be postponed; industry capital expenditure will shift to NPO near-packaged optical alternatives, significantly squeezing budgets originally allocated to CPO and high-end optical modules, leading to downward revisions of long-term optical communication orders.
Although NVIDIA’s official later rebutted the report’s pessimistic conclusions, the institution has a strong track record of accurately predicting chip supply chain delays, and its credibility remains high. The market, however, has not reversed its bearish sentiment.

2. Fundamental industry concerns: AI computing power no longer expanding infinitely, cloud providers’ capital expenditure margins tightening
Against the backdrop of global tech giants limiting unlimited AI computing power, the market is beginning to price in a slowdown in demand for AI hardware:
Leading cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Meta) are gradually tightening their compute resource procurement: canceling large long-term compute contracts, switching AI services to pay-as-you-go models, restricting free compute abuse, and introducing open-source model compression hardware to cut capital expenditure. Market concerns are mounting that orders for 1.6T/3.2T high-end optical modules and product ASPs may not meet expectations.
Recent earnings reports from Broadcom confirmed short-term AI revenue growth but refused to raise the FY2027 AI revenue guidance, which was interpreted by the market as signs that the growth rate of AI capital expenditure is peaking in the medium to long term. As the upstream of compute infrastructure, optical communications face a re-pricing of growth potential.
Mid- to low-end 800G optical modules are already experiencing overcapacity and price wars, with concerns that industry gross margins will continue to decline and that high growth is unsustainable.

3. Liquidity and trading: crowded high positions + multiple risk-averse fund outflows
The sector has seen huge gains this year, with valuations severely inflated. In the first half of 2026, optical communications and CPO stocks generally doubled in price, with a large amount of profit-taking, and TTM valuations generally exceeding 70 times. Once positive catalysts weaken, it can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking and sell-offs.
The massive capital siphoning effect from SpaceX’s IPO: SpaceX’s IPO was oversubscribed by over $250 billion, forcing public and hedge funds to sell off their most crowded AI compute and optical communication holdings to free up cash for the IPO, creating ongoing selling pressure; subsequent passive index rebalancing will further suppress liquidity in tech growth stocks.
As the Federal Reserve’s rate decision approaches, risk aversion increases: this week, the Fed announced its rate decision, and U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations. The market has completely abandoned the expectation of rate cuts this year, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and high-valuation tech growth stocks are under pressure. Funds are shifting from semiconductors and optical communications to defensive, cyclical sectors for risk hedging.