Tonight, when Waller spoke for the first time, I wasn't waiting for the interest rate, but for his tone.

When I wrote this, Waller's first press conference hadn't happened yet.
Today at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, the rate decision was announced, and at 2:30, he took the stage for the first time as Federal Reserve Chair.
The interest rate itself was almost a foregone conclusion.
The market priced in a 97% chance of no change, maintaining 3.50% to 3.75%.
This number had long been baked into the market, and no one would be surprised when it was announced.
The real points of interest are two other things: the dot plot, and the tone when this new chair speaks.
I’ve listed a few questions I care most about:
Will this year's median dot eliminate expectations of the last rate cut, effectively signaling no rate cuts for the year?
Will some committee members raise their dots, putting "rate hikes within the year" on the table?
Will Waller simply not draw his own dot—he has criticized the Fed for relying too much on public forecasts, so a "rule change" is quite possible.
The background is that inflation has already reached 4.2%, a three-year high.
More subtle is politics.
Trump initially pointed to Waller because he wanted rate cuts, and a few days ago, he even publicly said "there's no reason to hike."
But the data has pushed Waller in the opposite direction.
If he appears too hawkish, Trump might see it as a betrayal.
A new chair’s first appearance is a tightrope walk between data and the president.
But ultimately, interest rates are fixed; people are alive.
What I’ve been waiting for is never the rate number itself, but the sense of direction that leaks out when this new chair speaks—whether he’s continuing the old rhythm or starting anew.
One of my biggest lessons in macro is: don’t bet on the direction before the press conference.
Guessing right doesn’t earn many points, but guessing wrong can make you miserable for a week.
This kind of game has a very low cost-performance ratio.
So tonight, I won’t heavily bet on either side.
After Waller finishes speaking, I’ll digest it slowly when I wake up tomorrow.
At such moments, understanding what he’s saying is always more important than guessing whether markets will go up or down.