#BitcoinBouncesBack

Today promises to be one of the most eventful days for financial markets in this month’s dynamics. At the center of attention today are two macroeconomic events that could set the direction for risky assets in the coming weeks. In the first half of the day, at 15:30 Moscow time, May retail sales data in the US and their core component will be published. These figures are traditionally seen as a barometer of consumer confidence and, accordingly, inflationary pressure. Slightly later, at 17:30, a report on crude oil inventories will be released, but the main intrigue is undoubtedly linked to the evening session: at 21:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and half an hour later, the Fed chair’s press conference will begin, during which signals regarding future monetary policy steps are expected.

The market is holding its breath, and this period is particularly vulnerable due to the combination of a potentially strong retail report with a hawkish regulator rhetoric. If consumer spending exceeds forecasts and the Fed confirms its commitment to a hawkish stance, risk assets, including Bitcoin, could face a new wave of pressure. The most volatile period will likely be the half-hour interval between the rate announcement and the start of the press conference, when traders will be forming their initial interpretations of the decision.

Let’s turn to the technical picture of the first cryptocurrency. On the daily chart, BTCUSDT is fixed around $65,168, which is almost identical to the last 24-hour low of $65,110. The ascending channel supported by the SAR indicator at 62,063 remains in effect, but the current price position below the middle Bollinger Band (65,640) is concerning. The upper boundary of this range is at 73,790, and the lower boundary is at 57,489, indicating extended volatility and the potential movement amplitude in case of a breakout.

Oscillators give conflicting signals. The MACD histogram is moving into negative territory, and the indicator line itself (647) is noticeably below the signal line (2,394)—a classic bearish pattern, though not excessively strong. Meanwhile, the KDJ indices show overbought conditions in the short term (J value reaching 84.5), which often precedes a correction. However, the 12-period RSI is at 27.7, indicating deep oversold conditions, while the 6- and 24-period versions of the indicator remain in neutral or moderately negative zones. This divergence points to internal uncertainty: bulls and bears are not ready to take control yet.

Thus, Bitcoin is balancing near a critical support at $65,100. If the Fed’s evening rhetoric turns out to be more hawkish than expected, a test of the $62,000 level, coinciding with the SAR line, cannot be ruled out. Conversely, a dovish tone or hints of a pause in tightening could trigger a rebound to the $66,900–$67,500 range, where previous sell volumes are concentrated. It’s also important to consider that the daily trading volume exceeds $3.7 billion with nearly 57,500 BTC traded—liquidity is sufficient for sharp candles, and false moves in the first minutes after releases are common.

In such a situation, it seems prudent to wait until the press conference concludes, avoiding large positions without clear trend confirmation. Trading near key levels requires increased discipline, and today is just the kind of day when patience may be more valuable than speed.