Japan raises interest rates to 1%, and this time Bitcoin surprisingly didn't crash, and "not crashing" is actually the most dangerous.

On the day Japan raised interest rates, I watched the market closely.
It's not that I was optimistic, but I wanted to see a good show—every time Japan raises rates, it must crash. This script has been so familiar over the past few years. In March 2024, Bitcoin dropped 23%; in July, it fell 25%; in January 2025, it declined over 30%; last December, it dropped 25%.
Four times, with an average drop of 27%, and not once did it fail.
This time, BOJ raised rates from 0.75% to 1.0%, the highest since 1995, approved by a 7 to 1 vote, citing rapid oil price transmission to consumer goods. I waited to see Bitcoin's fifth performance.
And it didn't crash.
The Asian market once fell just above 65,000, then climbed back to over 66,000, gaining 2% in 24 hours. I watched that candlestick, feeling a bit amused—my prepared crash simply didn't happen.
But the more this happens, the more I dare not relax.
First, why is there a pattern of "rate hike → crash"? The logic is called carry trade: institutions borrow extremely cheap yen, then buy high-yield assets—be it US stocks, bonds, or crypto. Once the yen rate hikes and becomes more expensive, paying back these borrowed debts costs more, forcing them to sell risk assets to repay.
This is mechanical, not emotional.
So why did it hold this time? One possibility is that the market had already priced it in; another is that BOJ simultaneously paused shrinking its balance sheet and continued bond purchases, effectively raising rates with one hand and easing with the other, acting as a hedge.
There's also a point I've been tracking.
Metaplanet, the Japanese company with a securities license that specifically accumulates BTC—actually shows that Japan is walking on two legs regarding crypto: tightening monetary policy but relaxing crypto regulations. This contradiction itself is quite intriguing.
But regardless of the explanation, what I am most wary of is the phrase "this time didn't crash." Because it easily creates the illusion that "the pattern has failed."
However, the unwinding of carry trades never happens overnight; it seeps out gradually. In those four past instances, none of them crashed immediately.
I watched the market all day and nothing happened. This "defensive anxiety" is actually a form of tension. But I won't let my guard down just because today is calm. The true tide recedes very slowly.