Miner production costs are $76k, Bitcoin trading price is $65k, and mining one coin results in a loss of $11k. CryptoQuant's data is straightforward: miners are operating at a loss and are forced to sell coins. But on the other hand, on-chain data shows that holders absorbed 125k BTC in June, and the Sharpe ratio has reached levels not seen since 2015 in each cycle.

The two signals point in opposite directions: selling pressure comes from the most bottom-tier producers, while buying comes from the most steadfast holders. Who is right?
Wintermute's view is worth listening to: the bottom is not yet determined, a drop to $50k is still possible, but the risk-reward ratio around $60k is already attractive. The key is not the price but the flow of funds—continued inflows into ETFs and stablecoins have not yet appeared. The FOMC and the US-Iran agreement on Friday are the real variables.
Miner losses and coin selling are nothing new; similar phases have occurred after every halving in history. But this time is different: hash rate has decreased by 28% since October last year, difficulty adjustment is 20%, but costs are still at $76k. If prices continue to grind down, miners' cash flow pressure will transmit to the chain, creating a negative feedback loop.
And the strength of holders accumulating coins should not be underestimated. The net absorption of 125k coins in June is a typical feature of bottom regions in historical cycles. The contradiction is that bottoms often form amid divergence rather than consensus.
For traders, rather than guessing the bottom, it’s better to focus on two anchors: whether the funding rate remains positive after the FOMC, and whether oil prices can stabilize after the US-Iran agreement is implemented. These two variables are more indicative of the next market phase than any candlestick pattern.
$btc #fomc #Stablecoins #etf #On-chain data