Today I want to share not a profitable contract, but a deep review of my recent analysis of SUI. It taught me not when to enter the market, but "how to make decisions when market narratives are extremely divided."
In the past six months, SUI has been one of the most "mentally split" assets in the market. On one side, the price is painfully poor, having fallen over 70% this year, far from the all-time high of $5.35. On the other side, on-chain data is so good that it’s hard to believe—Total Value Locked (TVL) surged past $2.6 billion in May, setting a new record, with an annual growth rate of 160%.
This divergence made me start thinking: what is the real SUI?
What impressed me most was a feature launched by SUI on June 10th—zero-fee stablecoin transfers. Users no longer need to hold SUI tokens to pay gas fees; they can directly transfer stablecoins. This may seem like a small change, but the data shows an astonishing effect—by June 16th, in just a few days, nearly $65 billion in transactions were processed. Mysten Labs co-founder said their goal is to challenge traditional settlement systems like SWIFT.
Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions are voting with real money. CME launched SUI futures contracts, and Grayscale, Canary Capital, and 21Shares introduced three SUI spot ETFs in the US.
But what about the price? It’s still struggling around $0.80. On the technical side, $0.82–0.83 is a short-term key resistance level, with the SMA50 forming resistance at $0.95, and below that, $0.75–0.78 is an important support zone. In the derivatives market, smart money’s long position ratio is as high as 70%, but the price remains stagnant, indicating significant disagreement between bulls and bears at this level.
For this critical moment, I chose to wait.
My reasoning is as follows:
1. Valuation perspective: Based on the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio for public chains, in a pessimistic scenario, SUI’s fair range is $0.65–$0.72, and in a neutral scenario, $0.95–$1.10. The current price of $0.80 isn’t expensive, but it’s not extremely undervalued either.
2. Convergence signals from the divergence between on-chain data and price: This divergence won’t last forever. I need to see actual catalysts—such as sustained growth in zero-fee stablecoin transfers, ETF capital inflows, or a daily breakout above $0.83 and stabilization.
3. Risk management: If the price falls below the key support at $0.75, I will cut losses without hesitation. Although fundamentals are improving, incidents like the security vulnerability in the Scallop lending protocol in April and previous network outages show risks still exist.
This "non-trading" trade has taught me that sometimes, waiting requires more courage than frequent operations. When on-chain data and price are at odds, I won’t blindly buy the dip just because the price is cheap, nor chase after hype just because the ecosystem is lively. I prefer to wait for clear signals of divergence convergence before making a right-side trade.
This is my "key trade" on SUI—it doesn’t have specific entry or exit points, but it’s the most important lesson in my investment system.

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