Based on current market pricing, there is almost no suspense that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged tonight. The real factor that will determine the market direction is not the rate decision itself, but the dot plot and the signals released during Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair. The market's only concern right now is whether there will be a rate cut this year. Most institutions expect the upcoming dot plot to remove the previous dovish expectations, or even hint at no rate cuts in 2026 or only one possible cut, with a generally hawkish tone.

Regarding Warsh, my personal judgment is:

70% hawkish probability, 30% dovish probability.

The reasons are simple:

First, the U.S. labor market remains strong, and inflation is still significantly above the 2% target. Warsh has no urgent reason to cut rates.

Second, this is Warsh's first monetary policy meeting since taking office. If he signals dovishness at his first public appearance, it could be interpreted by the market as yielding to political pressure. Warsh has always emphasized the Fed's independence, so he is more likely to first establish a hawkish image.

Third, the market has already begun to reprice the risk of future rate hikes, with funds clearly betting on prolonged high interest rates.

Therefore, tonight's biggest risk is not a "no rate cut," but Warsh's speech being more hawkish than market expectations. #预测世界杯英格兰VS克罗地亚