On the eve of the Federal Reserve decision, where will gold, trapped in the eye of the storm, head?

Tonight/morning at 02:00, the Fed rate decision + dot plot will be announced. Before that, don’t expect a single-sided move during the day—just narrow-range grinding, back and forth washing, the real action happens in the early morning.

What is the current state of the market?

One sentence: The long-term bullish foundation is still there, but short-term bulls can’t push higher, and bears can’t break through—stalemate.

The upper resistance at 4355: Repeatedly tested and pushed back over the past two days, multiple attempts failed, indicating genuine selling pressure at high levels.

The lower support at 4312 (the downside of Monday’s gap): Not yet filled, every time it approaches, buy orders step in, and bears don’t have enough momentum to push it down in one wave.

The result is the tightening of the oscillation range, with both bulls and bears waiting for that shoe to drop in the early morning.

European session = tonight’s biggest observation window.

The final "free game" period before the decision—pay close attention to how the European session unfolds:

Scenario ① | European session breaks down → dips below 4312

The US session is likely to move ahead of expectations, with the primary goal: fill the Monday gap, extend the weakness, don’t hold on to get caught by the knife.

Scenario ② | European session stabilizes at low levels → gradual rebound

This indicates that buy orders at 4312 are holding, bulls still have the confidence to counterattack, and with the decision in the early morning combined with a dovish or less hawkish stance, there’s potential for a second surge to 4355 or even a break.

How to handle before the US session (before dawn)?

In these days, position size is more important than direction:

Don’t chase the top or the bottom, move only when near the boundaries within the range.

If 4355 can’t be held, it turns into a trend; if 4312 can’t be defended, acceleration follows—the oscillation before a breakout is a breeding ground for traps on both sides.

After the decision at 02:00, first observe the direction of volatility within 30 minutes, confirm before acting, don’t rush into the first move.

⚠️ The above is my personal review record and does not constitute investment advice. FOMC night volatility is extremely high, manage your positions well, and don’t skimp on stop-losses.

Do you think the dot plot will lean hawkish or dovish this time? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇