Since 2025, after 8 FOMC meetings, Bitcoin has declined 7 times—this statistic alone does not constitute a trading signal, but it reveals a market structure problem: macro narratives are already fully priced in ahead of the meetings, and the meetings themselves become a window for profit-taking.

Tomorrow early morning, the Federal Reserve will issue its first decision under Warsh, with the market generally expecting no change. But the real risk is not whether rates will be raised or not—it lies in the expectation gap: if the dot plot suggests a later rate cut, or Warsh releases hawkish wording, risk assets that have already been priced in for easing could face repricing. Bitcoin is currently consolidating narrowly in the $65,000–$66,000 range, with $64,000 becoming the near-term pivot between bulls and bears.
On-chain data provides another layer of perspective: spot relative transaction volume has fallen back to levels seen at the February low point, indicating that sell pressure is marginally weakening; perpetual contract funding rates have returned to neutral after shifting from negative to positive, meaning the long crowding has already been digested. This points to a slower bottoming process rather than a V-shaped reversal.
What’s worth watching is that Andrew Tate, after experiencing 107 liquidations, is again going long with 40x leverage, and a major whale is also going long on BTC and ETH with nearly $80 million in high leverage at the same time. Volatility tends to amplify around FOMC before and after the event, and high-leverage positions are especially prone to becoming liquidity casualties during directional moves.
Statistical patterns won’t repeat forever, but structural signals are more worth tracking than short-term price action.
$fomc #btc #eth #defi #On-chain data