Gold Daily Report | 2026-06-17

Key Data
Table
Indicator Value Change
Spot Price $4,339 24h +$33 (+0.77%)
7-Day Change +$164 +3.9%
ATH Retreat -22.6% ATH $5,608 (January 2026)
4-Day Consecutive Rise +$315 Rebound from $4,024 low +7.8%
RSI ~63 Neutral leaning strong
US Dollar Index 99.61 -0.3%
COMEX Futures $4,356 +0.69%
Shanghai Gold T+D ¥941.78/g +0.06%
10-Year U.S. Treasury 4.42% From 4.48% retreating
Last Night’s Major Events
**Gold rises for 4 consecutive days, surpassing $4,340**: Close at $4,341.78, rebounded 7.8% from June 11 low of $4,024, short covering continues
U.S.-Iran Peace Memorandum Signed: Trump, Vance, and Iranian Speaker signed; officially signed in Geneva on 6/19, 60-day technical negotiations initiated. Expectations for the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lifted, oil prices drop below $80
Rapid Cooling of Rate Hike Expectations: December rate hike probability drops from 70% to 57%, September rate cut probability rises to 78% (CME FedWatch). The negative chain of war → oil prices → inflation → rate hikes breaks
Trading Logic Completely Shifts: From "geopolitical safe haven" back to "inflation-interest rate expectations" framework. Geopolitical easing → oil prices fall → inflation expectations cool → U.S. bond yields decline → gold holding costs decrease → gold prices rebound. Counterintuitive but internally consistent
Shanghai Gold Exchange Raises Margin Requirements: Starting from the close on 6/17, margin for gold T+D and other contracts increases from 15% to 16%, to prevent large fluctuations before and after the FOMC
Resistance and Support
Table
Type Price Level Description
Resistance 3 $4,500 Citigroup 3-month target / medium-term bullish target
Resistance 2 $4,400 Psychological round number / upper end of previous dense trading zone
Resistance 1 $4,350-4,380 Current testing zone / line connecting 6/4 and 6/6 highs
Current Price $4,339
Support 1 $4,300 Rebound starting point / support after breakdown
Support 2 $4,250 Short-term bull-bear dividing line
Support 3 $4,200-4,240 Previous consolidation lower boundary
Support 4 $4,024 June 11 intraday low / extreme support
Strategy
Overall Judgment: Oversold correction in place, FOMC sets direction
Short-term: Tonight’s FOMC is the only variable. Wosh’s first appearance presents two scenarios:
🟢 Dovish (lower rate hike expectations / acknowledge inflation is falling): Gold breaks $4,400 toward $4,500, accelerating short squeeze
🔴 Hawkish (emphasize sticky inflation / maintain high rates): Pullback to $4,250-$4,300, partial reversal of 4-day gains
Current position: neither chasing longs nor shorts, wait for FOMC outcome
Mid-term: The $4,200-$4,500 range remains intact. Geopolitical easing is priced in, next catalyst is inflation data (PCE at the end of June). Gold has shifted from "safe haven narrative" back to "interest rate narrative," closely watch U.S. bond real yields
Long-term: Global central banks net purchased 244 tons in Q1 (historical high), China has increased holdings for 17 consecutive months, gold accounts for over 27% of global reserves surpassing U.S. bonds. De-dollarization + central bank gold buying form a bottom anchor, below $4,000 is the long-term allocation zone
Major Bank Targets:
Citigroup $4,500 in 3 months | UBS remains cautiously optimistic in the short term | Morgan Stanley $4,800 (requires rate cut signals) | Goldman Sachs $4,900 by year-end
Key Time Nodes
Table
Date Event Impact
6/17-18 FOMC Meeting (Wosh’s first appearance) Main focus this week: interest rate decision + dot plot + press conference, determines short-term direction
6/18 02:00 FOMC Statement + Economic Projections Dot plot revision, interest rate path hints
6/18 02:30 Wosh’s Press Conference First appearance tone sets the tone, hawk-dove stance clarified
6/17 20:30 May Retail Sales Consumer data, aids FOMC pricing
6/19 U.S.-Iran Official Signing (Geneva) Agreement confirmation, geopolitical premium fully cleared