Wednesday Jing Yi's Thinking: White Paper Brewing Big Rhythm, Focus on Tonight's Federal Reserve Decision

Beijing Time: June 18th, 2:00 AM, the new Fed Chair Powell's first decision meeting, will BTC go up or down?

The core game point this time is not about interest rate hikes; the market is pricing in a 99.5% certainty that rates will stay unchanged. The two key factors that truly determine the trend are:

1. Dot Plot Expectation Revision: The March meeting still had expectations of one rate cut within the year; tonight's meeting is likely to directly erase those expectations, even signaling a hawkish stance.

2. Powell's First Speech: He is very likely to break previous rules, not coordinate with the dot plot to release signals, and the market interpretation will depend entirely on capital sentiment. The trend is shrouded in fog, making it impossible to predict.

Historical data shows that after FOMC meetings, Bitcoin mostly trends downward, but Powell is a new and uncertain variable this time. Past patterns are invalid and cannot be used as reference.

Jing Yi predicts three possible market scenarios and prepares response plans in advance:

1. Mild Dovish (Probability 15%-20%): Keep expectations of rate cuts + Powell's speech leaning dovish. Bitcoin may surge to 680-700. Wait for a pullback or turning point after the rise to re-enter short positions.

2. Neutral Balance (Probability 50%): No clear bullish or bearish signals. The market remains range-bound between 635-672, so consider high selling and low buying.

3. Hawkish (Probability 30%-35%): Completely eliminate rate cut expectations + Powell focusing on inflation pressure. Bitcoin could plummet 3%-5%, dropping to 620-630. Deep declines are possible. If volume breaks below 645 support, consider shorting.

Attention for small traders: The early morning market is very prone to double-sided pinning to wipe out stop-losses. Do not rush to open positions. Wait until Powell's speech is fully delivered at 2:30 AM, then digest the market for 15 minutes and observe the real trend before making decisions.

唯一的入场信号：放量跌破645顺势做空；做多只有一种机会，突发鸽派利好且站稳665上方，无论多空，仓位严格轻仓操作。

Tonight, avoid pre-trading; wait for Powell to reveal his hand, then operate the next day. This will directly halve the risk and be ten times more secure! #我的Gate交易时刻