BTC bottom signal appears, but do not rush to buy the dip

1. Key indicator hits bottom: Sharpe ratio drops to -20, all major bottoms in 2015, 2018, 2022 showed similar signals
Historical cycle review:
2015 bottom oscillated for 5 months, 2018/2022 bear market bottoms both took about 3 months
Signals only indicate entering the bottom zone, not an immediate rally; the bottoming process should not be ignored

2. On-chain chips are rapidly transferring

- Accumulated 125k BTC in wallets during early June
- Spot reserves on exchanges are continuously flowing out, a total reduction of 80k BTC since February, current stock is 2.71 million BTC
- Whales withdrew 11k BTC in a single day, spot chips are steadily moving from exchanges to cold wallets, selling pressure continues to weaken

3. Hidden risks in this rebound logic
This round rebounded from the low of 59,130 to 65,800, driven by geopolitical news of the US-Iran agreement, not on-chain funds, so its sustainability is questionable

4. Key points to observe in the future market
The Federal Reserve rate decision is the biggest test this week, dot plot expectations, and Powell’s inflation comments will directly determine whether BTC’s short-term rebound can continue
Gradually allocate chips in the bottom zone, avoid a full-scale buy-in, and prepare for long-term bottoming and oscillation expectations

$ETH Institutions are still waiting to scoop up at the bottom
Currently, buying at the bottom requires caution

Crude oil CL has already hit this year's new low
The market remains pessimistic
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