#美国adp就业变动降至2.55万

Today, ADP announced that the private employment data for June was only 25.5k, far below the market expectation of 90,000-100k, indicating a significant slowdown.
This data sends a fairly clear signal: the U.S. labor market is cooling rapidly.
Here's a simple interpretation:
In the past few months, employment data has been gradually weakening, but this time, the decline in ADP exceeded most people's expectations. A weakening labor market is usually one of the most closely watched indicators by the Federal Reserve, which will directly boost market expectations for a rate cut in September. Currently, the market's probability of a rate cut in September has already increased noticeably.
For crypto, this combination of weakening employment and rising rate cut expectations is a short-term macro environment that is somewhat favorable. Because risk assets tend to be quite sensitive to liquidity expectations, especially at this relatively sensitive juncture.
Of course, ADP is only private sector data; tomorrow, we will also look at the more important non-farm payrolls (NFP), which may cause further volatility.
What do you think?
Does this weak ADP data mean that a rate cut in September is basically a certainty?