Oil prices crashed, can BTC rise? Naive. Tonight, Wosh will show you what a “false positive” looks like.

WTI plunged 7% intraday, Brent fell below $80.

Three-month low.

The market is cheering: inflation is cooling down! The Fed has reason to turn dovish! Bitcoin is about to take off!

I just want to say one thing: you’ve been fooled again.

Early this morning Beijing time, Bloomberg and Al Arabiya TV simultaneously disclosed the 14 points of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding.

The core points are two:

First, the U.S. Treasury immediately issues exemption licenses, allowing Iran to export crude oil and petrochemical products, with full banking, insurance, and transportation services.

Second, Iran promises to ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

A few months ago, the market was worried about “the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, 20% of global supply cut,” now it’s directly turned into “Iran’s oil is coming, how long until it arrives?”

Market narrative has instantly shifted from “not enough oil” to “too much oil.”

So oil prices crashed. WTI fell to $75.78, Brent to $78.77. The decline is the biggest since May 20.

Oil prices fell, inflation expectations cooled, and Wosh has reason to turn dovish, right?

Wrong. Dead wrong.

Tonight, at 2 a.m. Beijing time, Wosh will step onto the FOMC podium for the first time as Federal Reserve Chair.

Interest rates are not a suspense — 99% chance they will stay put, maintaining 3.5%-3.75%.

The real bombshell is here: the “rate cuts” words in the 2026 dot plot will most likely be completely removed.

88% of surveyed economists expect the Fed to directly delete the “dovish tilt” wording from the statement.

Federal funds futures show that the probability of rate hikes before December 2026 has already exceeded 80%.

You read that right — 80% chance of hikes, 0% chance of cuts.

So what about the plunge in oil prices? Is it a “shield” in Wosh’s hands?

Yes. But he’s very unlikely to use it.

Why? Because Wosh isn’t really looking at energy prices.

U.S. CPI for May already soared to 4.2% year-over-year. And core inflation? Rents are rising, wages are rising, service prices are rising. The inflation component excluding energy and food remains unchanged.

Oil price drops are an accidental geopolitical event. Core inflation is the real stubborn structural problem.

Who is Wosh? Former Morgan Stanley executive, experienced in the 2008 financial crisis. His logic is completely opposite to that of retail investors—

You see oil prices fall and cheer that inflation is coming down.

What he sees is: oil prices fell, but other prices are still rising. The Fed can’t rely on luck to control inflation.

So what’s the most likely scenario tonight?

Wosh will thank the oil price drop for “relieving short-term inflation pressure”—then immediately add: “But core inflation remains stubborn, and the committee remains vigilant on the data.”

The dot plot will remove the 2026 rate cut guidance. The rate cut expectations will be pushed to June and December 2027.

He’ll save face for the White House, but lock in the easing measures.

What does this mean for BTC?

BTC is now fluctuating around $65,700. It has fallen 20% from the May high of $82k.

The Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with $3.4 billion outflow in the first week of June, a record.

The fear and greed index today is 22, “Extreme Fear.”

Do you think the oil price crash is a lifeline for BTC?

Wake up. The oil price drop is just temporary noise; Wosh’s hawkish stance is the real trend.

Prolonged high interest rates mean the valuation logic of risk assets must be rewritten. BTC is not gold; don’t expect it to be immune in a tightening cycle.

“The oil price drop is just a script for you, but core inflation is Wosh’s trump card. Don’t mistake the shield for a lifeline — #我的Gate交易时刻 it can’t stop bullets.”