Has the crypto market bottomed out? Here's how institutions view it

Writing: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise

Translation: Chopper, Foresight News

Over the past two weeks, aside from Bitwise, three long-term crypto research institutions I follow closely have all released in-depth reports, exploring the same topic: Has the crypto market already bottomed out?

Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin has not yet bottomed, data points to a potential bottom range

NYDIG: What factors are suppressing Bitcoin’s price

Standard Chartered: The market bottom has already appeared

The three reports are detailed, containing massive data and complete logical reasoning, worth reading in full. But if you’re looking for a simple, unified answer, you might be disappointed: the judgments from these three authoritative institutions are completely different.

Has the market bottomed?

Galaxy Digital: No

NYDIG: Possibly bottomed, but unlikely

Standard Chartered: Already bottomed

Now let’s analyze each institution’s core logic one by one.

Three institutions, three perspectives

Galaxy Digital

Galaxy Digital reviewed Bitcoin’s full historical price trend from 2017, summarizing 13 indicators that truly signal a market bottom when they occur simultaneously, covering valuation, profit-taking and selling, miner pressure, trend, bull-bear cycles, and market sentiment. Long-term Bitcoin investors are familiar with these indicators, including the 200-week moving average, the Fear and Greed Index, the Mayer Multiple, and others.

Galaxy found that only 4 indicators are fully met, 2 are partially satisfied, and the remaining 7 have not triggered a bottom signal. The report concludes: Bitcoin’s current bottom range is between $30k and $54k, with a neutral baseline bottom between $40k and $46k.

NYDIG

NYDIG also uses a multi-indicator comprehensive assessment framework, comparing the current market with historical cycles, evaluating from dimensions such as maximum drawdown duration and holder profit/loss (referred to by Bitcoin users as “MVRV,” the ratio of market cap to realized value).

NYDIG believes that current indicators are close to the extreme values of historical lows, but have not yet shown the comprehensive panic selling characteristic of major bear markets. The report also introduces a variable: institutional capital entering the market has fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s cycle logic. The current correction might be smaller than past bear markets, so from this perspective, a bottom may already have appeared.

Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered is not overly bullish on Bitcoin. In February, when Bitcoin was around $67k, the bank lowered its full-year price forecast, warning that prices could fall to $50k due to macroeconomic weakness and ongoing ETF selling pressure.

However, last Friday, Standard Chartered updated its view, identifying $59k as the bottom of this cycle. The two main reasons supporting this view are: the possibility of a diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran; and the highly anticipated IPO of SpaceX. The bank believes that the large amount of ETF holders selling Bitcoin was to raise funds for SpaceX’s listing, and this selling pressure will gradually subside. Standard Chartered’s latest forecast is that Bitcoin could surge to $100k within the year.

Consensus among the three reports far exceeds their differences

You might wonder, what useful information can be distilled from three completely opposing reports? In fact, the underlying consensus among the three is much greater than their surface differences. For long-term investors, the conclusions they agree on are far more valuable than their disagreements:

All three agree that the current market bottom will occur within this year;

All three believe that the current price is closer to the bottom than to previous highs;

All three are optimistic that Bitcoin will usher in a new bull market in the future.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is about $67k. One report states the bottom has already appeared at $59k, another sees a potential drop to $50k, and a third uses a neutral baseline bottom of $43k. But the core conclusion is highly unified: a bottom will definitely be reached within the year.

This is the key point that long-term investors should focus on. Whether the bottom falls at $40k, $50k, or $60k, the difference is actually limited; what truly matters is whether Bitcoin can rally to $100k, $200k, or even a million dollars in the future. As long as those price levels are reached, entering at current prices and holding long-term can yield very substantial returns.

An ironic phenomenon in the current market is that everyone is obsessing over whether the market has bottomed, while neglecting a more important question — whether the top has already appeared. In my view, as long as the peak has not yet arrived, Bitcoin still has long-term value for allocation.

The core logic supporting Bitcoin’s long-term value has not disappeared; on the contrary, it continues to strengthen: governments worldwide are accumulating debt with no effective solution; inflation is eroding real purchasing power; public trust in governments, banks, and centralized institutions continues to decline; global digitalization accelerates; Bitcoin’s trading and investment channels are constantly improving; the age and influence of early crypto-native groups are growing in tandem with their assets and industry impact.

Of course, there are potential risks such as quantum computing threats and tightening global regulations. But overall, the current situation is better than any previous crypto winter.