$BTC How much further can it fall? Can it still drop?

Recently, many people are discussing the market with topics like the US-Iran war, rate cuts, rate hikes, and crypto legislation, but actually, these are unnecessary and cannot determine the market trend. These do not represent the macro environment; they are just news factors. Just like Bitcoin's ETF, whether Bitcoin has an ETF or not, it will still rise and reach over 120,000. Because global M2 liquidity is fixed, the money supply is dead. Combining this with the historical context: from the 2014 bull market to the 2017 bull market, it grew from 100 billion to 800 billion, an increase of 30k USD. From 2017 to 2021, it went from 800 billion to 3 trillion, an increase of 2.2 trillion USD. In this cycle, the peak last October was 4.2 trillion, which is half of the previous cycle's market cap. Right? The crypto market is a growth market; it started from a bull market with 10 billion, then to 100 billion, then 800 billion, and then 3 trillion. The lowest in this cycle was 7.5 trillion. The logic of altcoins won't change either; the top 800 altcoins account for 99% of the total market cap. So, based on history, in the last bull market, altcoins accounted for 60% of the market cap, because Bitcoin's market share reached 38%. In this cycle, I estimate altcoins at 40%. So, if the lowest point follows my projection, and the market cap returns to the previous high of 5.2 trillion, with 40%, then altcoins would have a market cap of 2 trillion USD. This 2 trillion USD is divided among these 800 coins. Actually, this cycle's performance is similar to 2021, because in 2021, a market cap of 3 trillion USD meant Bitcoin held about 60%, which is around 2 trillion USD.

Let me emphasize one more thing. The market cap growth in crypto is different from the US stock market and gold. Crypto is a risk market; it rises quickly and intensely. Gold and US stocks tend to grow slowly, possibly increasing every month. In crypto, the market cap only increases significantly in the last three months of a cycle, with the rest being sideways. For example, in the 2021 bull market, the market cap was sideways around the previous high. In the 2017 bull market, it was sideways around the 2014 market cap. This cycle is also sideways around the 2021 bull market, with the market cap stabilizing, then digesting through a year of bear market—that's the rhythm of crypto. Additionally, the industry needs growth, macro conditions are favorable, the industry needs it to rise, and the bull-bear logic in crypto also requires growth. After five years of decline, there's nowhere lower to go. Only rising can complete the ecosystem cycle! #btc
#SpaceX市值超越微软跻身全球前五