On the prediction market Polymarket, an account in the football sector with a 75% win rate has invested $1.7k predicting "Yes" on the question "Will Messi become the top scorer in the 2026 World Cup," with an implied probability of 19.4% at the time of betting, and the current probability for "Yes" is 23.3%.

#预测世界杯英格兰VS克罗地亚 has a net profit of $13.5k in the football sector, with a win rate of 74/99 (74.7%), including 30 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median amount invested historically is $294.

The World Cup group stage match between Argentina and Algeria is rapidly reassessing Messi's Golden Boot expectations. Live coverage from The Guardian shows Messi scoring in the 17th, 60th, and 76th minutes consecutively, with Argentina leading Algeria 3-0 at one point.

This market rule focuses on which player scores the most goals after all major rounds of the 2026 World Cup are completed. In the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Messi scored 7 goals, second only to Kylian Mbappé's 8 goals who won the Golden Boot, and led Argentina to victory; before the tournament, his total World Cup goals were 13, already in the top tier historically.

Looking at the broader picture, the current main contenders for the Golden Boot remain concentrated among a few players: Mbappé is still the top favorite at about 26%, supported by France's overall championship path and the continuation of his 2022 Golden Boot; Messi has risen to above 20%, driven mainly by expectations of Argentina's deep run and his explosive performance in the first match; Kane is around 12%, supported by England's squad depth and penalty kick opportunities.