June 17 Morning Review: Bitcoin and Ethereum Accumulate at Key Support Levels Ahead of FOMC Decision

On the morning of June 17, Bitcoin fluctuated around $65,700, while Ethereum moved within a narrow range near $1,660. The market is in a sensitive window ahead of the June FOMC decision, with most of the panic from the rapid correction from the high of $73,000 already released, and bearish momentum significantly weakening. Technically, the MACD bearish momentum histogram continues to shrink, the KDJ shows a golden cross at low levels, and the RSI is recovering from oversold territory, indicating signs of stabilization and rebound in the short term. On the capital side, overnight trading volume has sharply contracted, market sentiment remains cautious, and leveraged funds are maintaining prudence. On the news front, the Middle East situation has not further escalated, US stock futures remain stable, and market risk appetite has slightly improved. Notably, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on June 16-17 will be a key watershed for short-term direction. The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but the dot plot and Powell’s statements could reshape the full-year rate cut expectations. Overall, Bitcoin’s $65,000–66,000 range and Ethereum’s $1,650–1,670 zone remain effective supports. The short-term trend leans toward a rebound after consolidation, but vigilance is needed for increased volatility after the decision announcement.

1. Early Morning Market Review: Consolidation, Panic Release

During the early hours, Bitcoin and Ethereum maintained a consolidation and recovery trend. Bitcoin peaked at $65,849 before pulling back, with a low of $65,333, trading within the $65,300–65,850 range; Ethereum reached a high of $1,677, then dipped to $1,652 before consolidating, still trading around $1,660–1,680.

Structurally, the panic from the previous rapid decline has been somewhat alleviated. Since the early June high of $73,580, Bitcoin has retraced over 10%, with a low of $59,108; Ethereum fell from a high of $2,017, with a maximum drop of over 20%, reaching $1,506. Bearish pressure has notably weakened, and buying interest at lower levels has begun to emerge, especially since June 11, with Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $61,448, forming a clear bottoming structure.

2. Technical Analysis: Indicators Showing Recovery, Rebound Demand Emerging

On the technical side, multiple indicators suggest a short-term stabilization and rebound need. The MACD bearish momentum histogram continues to shrink, with the fast and slow lines converging; the KDJ forms a golden cross at low levels; RSI, recovering from below 30 (oversold), has risen to the neutral zone of 40–50, indicating weakening selling pressure and increasing buying strength.

Key price levels show Bitcoin’s $65,000–66,000 zone as a major support, being a dense trading area since the rebound from June 11. If this level holds, the next resistance targets are $67,000–68,000, with a potential test of the psychological $70,000 mark upon breakout. For Ethereum, the $1,650–1,670 range has been the consolidation center since June 12, with stronger support at the $1,600 level. Resistance exists at $1,750–1,800, where heavy trapped positions may pose pressure.

3. Capital and Sentiment: Cautious Wait-and-See, Awaiting Macro Guidance

On the capital front, overnight trading volumes have shrunk significantly compared to previous days—Bitcoin’s 24-hour volume around $23.2 billion, Ethereum about $11.6 billion—both at relatively low levels recently, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Leverage funds remain cautious.

The Fear & Greed Index, which dipped into “Extreme Fear” (12 points) in early June, has recently recovered, indicating a gradual easing of extreme panic. Notably, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted net inflows of $1.97 billion in April, the strongest monthly since 2026, but saw phased outflows from late May to early June, with institutional buying cooling.

4. Macro News: FOMC Decision as the Core Variable

The Fed’s June FOMC meeting (June 16-17) is the biggest source of uncertainty currently. According to a Reuters survey, all 102 economists expect the Federal Funds Rate to remain at 3.50–3.75%, with 72 expecting it to stay at this level through 2026.

The focus is on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot. After the strong non-farm payroll data on June 5, several Fed officials reiterated caution. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and others emphasized that, despite resilient labor markets, rates may need to stay higher longer. If the dot plot shows fewer rate cuts in 2026 than previously expected (or hints at no cuts all year), market expectations for the rate path will be significantly reshaped, potentially putting risk assets under pressure.

Additionally, the Middle East situation has not further escalated, and news of a peace framework agreement between Iran and the US has boosted risk appetite; US stock futures remain steady, with the Nasdaq stabilizing after last week’s sharp decline.

5. Trading Strategy: Cautious Positioning, Strict Risk Control

Bitcoin (BTC):

• Support levels: $65,000–65,500 (key support), $63,000–64,000 (strong support)

• Resistance levels: $67,000–68,000, $70,000 (psychological level)

• Trading advice: Light long positions around $64,000–65,000, targeting $67,000–68,000, with a breakout aiming for $70,000. Strict stop-loss below $63,000. Reduce positions before and after the FOMC decision to avoid volatility spikes.

Ethereum (ETH):

• Support levels: $1,650–1,670 (key support), $1,600 (strong support)

• Resistance levels: $1,750–1,800, $1,850

• Trading advice: Light long positions around $1,620–1,650, targeting $1,750–1,800, with a breakout aiming for $1,850. Strict stop-loss below $1,580. Be aware that Ethereum’s volatility is usually higher than Bitcoin, requiring more conservative position management.

Risk Alerts:

1. FOMC Decision Risk: Rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 18, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30, may significantly amplify market volatility.

2. Dot Plot Risk: If the 2026 rate cut expectations are lowered, risk assets could face pressure.

3. Geopolitical Risk: Although the Middle East situation is temporarily calm, ongoing developments should be monitored.

4. Leverage Risk: The market remains cautious with relatively thin liquidity; high leverage operations are prone to extreme losses.

Conclusion: On June 17, the market stands at a critical crossroads. While Bitcoin and Ethereum show signs of stabilization technically, macro factors like the FOMC decision could alter the short-term trajectory. Investors are advised to stay cautious before the announcement, control positions, and wait for clearer signals before increasing exposure. Regardless of whether the market moves up or down, risk management always #我的Gate交易时刻 comes first.