On June 17, GuoFeng Securities' latest research report showed that the firm has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 7,300 points to 7,950 points, believing that the easing of US-Iran conflicts, declining inflation pressures, and fully priced-in rate hike expectations are forming a "triple bullish resonance" for US stocks.

The report pointed out that as the US and Iran are expected to sign a temporary peace agreement and the outlook for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improves, the global energy risk premium has significantly decreased. The decline in oil prices helps ease US inflation pressures and improves market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Wang Chengquan, a stock strategist at GuoFeng Securities, stated that market sentiment has shifted from extreme caution back to neutrality. AI and semiconductor sectors remain the core growth drivers, and cyclicals are expected to catch up after geopolitical risks subside. Capital may continue to rotate from defensive assets to risk assets.

Meanwhile, the firm believes that the market has partially priced in the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Woor, and that inflation remains the main variable in the short term, but the risk of rate hikes is relatively limited.

However, the report also highlights two major downside risks: first, the historic volatility pressure brought by the US midterm election cycle; second, the potential tightening of regulations facing the AI industry, with related policy statements possibly disrupting the current main driver of US stock gains.

Overall, GuoFeng Securities believes that US stocks are still in a phase of emotional recovery and structural rally continuation, but the risk of rising volatility is accumulating. #我的Gate交易时刻