VanEck report identifies the “pain points” for Bitcoin miners’ transition to AI: a $50 billion funding gap—execution is what it takes to make the leap

VanEck’s latest report says that Bitcoin mining firms’ transition to AI infrastructure faces a nearly $50 billion funding gap, and investors’ focus is shifting from “contract announcements” to “delivery capability”—with only about one quarter of AI and high-performance computing capacity actually delivered so far.
(Background: Bitcoin miners also benefit from AI! Bernstein is optimistic about leveraging power advantages to build computing centers and has raised its stock rating.)
(Additional context: Perspective—If the U.S. becomes a Bitcoin mining and AI hub, ultra-high voltage transformers will become a new Trump-era concept stock.)

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• Only one quarter delivered—“execution capability replacing signing” becomes the new premium
• Bitcoin down 24%, mining stocks up nearly one倍
• “Energized power” becomes the clearest valuation anchor
• Names potential stocks and companies still tied to Bitcoin
• Where is Taiwan’s dividend, instead?

On Wednesday, U.S. asset management firm VanEck released a new report, pointing out that Bitcoin mining firms that have repositioned themselves over the past two years as AI infrastructure providers are entering a more challenging phase of transformation—one that proves they truly can deliver.

In the report, VanEck investment analysts Griffin MacMaster and digital asset research director Matthew Sigel said the market is cooling off from the enthusiasm around signing AI contracts and is turning to a more fundamental question: whether miners can raise capital, build, and operate the massive data centers required to serve AI customers.

The firm estimates that if current development plans are carried forward, the mining industry faces a short-term funding gap of about $50 billion, while long-term capital needs could be as high as $221 billion.

Only one quarter delivered—“execution capability replacing signing” becomes the new premium

VanEck notes that of the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) capacity rented out by miners to customers, only about 25% has actually been delivered. The report emphasizes that “signing contracts is no longer the premium—execution capability is,” and that companies that miss key milestones in their construction plans may face “structural downgrades” from investors.

This observation comes amid dramatic changes in the Bitcoin mining industry. After the 2024 halving, mining profits shrank, and many operators began repurposing power infrastructure to support AI computing workloads—betting that tech companies’ power and data center spending will far exceed that of Bitcoin mining rigs.

Core Scientific (CORZ) and AI startup CoreWeave signed multi-hundred-million-dollar hosting agreements, successfully transforming from Bitcoin mining firms into AI infrastructure providers. TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT), Iren (IREN), and Cipher Mining (CIFR) have all announced that they are renting out power and data center capacity to AI and high-performance computing customers. Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK) are taking a hybrid approach—maintaining Bitcoin mining operations while also exploring AI opportunities.

Bitcoin down 24%, mining stocks up nearly one倍

In the first half of this year, Bitcoin has fallen about 24% from January. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies have weakened as capital continues to flow away from other areas and into AI. However, shares of Bitcoin mining firms have generally risen: RIOT is up nearly 94% year-to-date, CIFR is up 62%, and many peers show similar gains.

A brand-new narrative has driven the largest stock-price move in the crypto sector over the past year. Investors’ valuations of these companies increasingly reflect their AI potential rather than their core mining business.

But VanEck believes the valuation picture is still not straightforward. What investors are trying to price are companies caught between two worlds: a mining operation in decline, and an AI business that has not yet produced meaningful cash flow.

“Energized power” becomes the clearest valuation anchor

The report says the most clear-cut valuation indicator right now is “energized power”—the scale of operational power infrastructure that a company can mobilize. For companies that have signed AI lease agreements, their valuation multiples exceed energized power by more than 10 times. For mining firms still in the proposal stage, the valuation multiples are lower.

VanEck also expects the market to place greater emphasis on “tenant quality.” Operators of service-grade mega data centers serving investment-grade clients typically have lower financing costs and higher valuations; companies partnering with smaller and mid-sized AI startups must bear higher execution risk.

Names potential stocks and companies still tied to Bitcoin

The report lists HIVE, Bitdeer (BTDR), Keel, and IREN as targets with potential for upward revision if they sign more contracts, while also noting that the performance of MARA, CLSK, and RIOT still tracks more closely with Bitcoin price movements.

Overall, VanEck defines the next stage of the mining industry as “less talk about AI grand ambitions, more focus on infrastructure.” The ultimate winners will be those that can convert signed megawatts into data centers that actually operate within budget and on schedule.

Where is Taiwan’s dividend, instead?

The core of shifting from Bitcoin mining to AI is an arbitrage in which “selling electricity” upgrades to “selling computing power.” Taiwan also has dense data center resources. Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) estimates that by 2025, electricity consumption for data centers nationwide will reach 10 billion units (kWh), or about 10% of total power generation. If Taiwan’s future expansion of AI computing follows a similar path, it will face the same challenge: “easy to sign contracts, hard to energize.”

The difference is that U.S. miners already have existing high-voltage power lines and cheap natural gas, while Taiwan needs to compete for limited incremental electricity capacity. VanEck’s $50 billion funding gap highlights to investors that the valuation logic for AI infrastructure is shifting from “how many contracts have been signed” to “how much power has been energized”—and this rule applies to any market.