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🐻 Bank of America: AI trading has become too overheated.
June survey of fund managers controlling assets worth $540,000,000,000.
▫️Cash in portfolios rose to 4.1%—not panic, but more like locking in part of the risk after a strong rally.
▫️The BofA Bull & Bear indicator rose to 8.9 out of 10—an overrules-for-selling counter-signal zone.
▫️The main overheated trade in June was a long position in global semiconductors. A record 80% of managers consider this trade the most overloaded in the market.
▫️For comparison: only 12% of respondents called a long in the “Magnificent Seven” overloaded, and only 4% did so for oil. The crowd’s focus has finally shifted to chips and AI.
▫️Main risks: a second wave of inflation (34%), an AI bubble (28%), and chaotic growth in government bond yields (19%).
▫️The Fed has turned more hawkish: 40% of managers expect a rate hike in the next 12 months, and 55% expect Kevin Warsh to deliver a “hard pause”—keep rates unchanged, but make it clear that it’s too early to talk about cuts.