6.16 Breeze Evening Gold Analysis

London gold opened at 4309 in the daytime session. It dipped to a low of 4306 in the early part of the day, then received support and moved upward. In the afternoon, it rose to 4348. Overall, it continues the oversold rebound and repair trend that started on June 11. After a round of gains, the short-term market has built up a large amount of profit-taking positions, and upside momentum is gradually weakening. The current price is consolidating in a narrow range around 4330. The hourly Bollinger Bands keep tightening. Before the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is released, market sentiment remains cautious. The “dou-kong” game intensifies, and there are temporarily no conditions to break into a directional, one-way trend.

There are mainly three core points in the news: First, the latest survey data from the World Gold Council shows that 45% of the surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold holdings this year. Continued official buying across countries provides long-term support for gold prices, to a large extent limiting the room for a deep pullback. Second, the FOMC interest rate decision will be released in the early hours of tomorrow. The market’s mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve will keep the current interest rate level unchanged. Funds reduce positions in advance to avoid risk, causing intraday volatility to keep narrowing. Third, expectations in the market for a peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. are heating up. Oil prices are falling, and inflation expectations have shifted downward to some extent, which in the short term weakens gold’s safe-haven premium.

Trading reference: 4305-4315 do “dou-kong”, target 4355-4365