After pondering for a long time, the big pancake has already reached the position I predicted, around 670, the highest I can see is only here, and at the limit, I can see about 861.

It's basically in place, and I really want to short the big pancake, after all, Japan is about to raise interest rates soon, it must fall, so I can short and eat the meat.
As long as Japan's rate hike is certain, shorting is fine, according to statistical data, Japan has raised interest rates four times, and three days before the rate hike, it drops more than 2%, and after the hike, it accelerates its decline.
The one on January 24, 2025, was quite strange; it rose after the rate hike, then plummeted, and after the rate hike was implemented, it even rose to 107, then kept falling to 780.

I'm very conflicted, I analyze myself that it should fall, the position of the big pancake has reached, the news is also supportive, I can totally short, but I just don't dare to act, I'm afraid because this time is very abnormal, everyone knows a rate hike is coming, last week and this Monday, there was no sign of decline at all, institutions might be selling early, could it be that the big pancake dropped from over 70k to 591, and institutions already front-run and arbitraged out, preparing to pay off loans as soon as the rate hike hits? I think only this can explain it; before the sharp drop, breaking the pattern, there was no decline before the rate hike expectations.

I'm still holding back, hesitating and wandering, feeling restless, not opening any more, if I miss the decline, I accept it.

Let's look again at $SPCX , my prediction is correct, it will rise in the first few days after opening, after all, there are too many die-hard fans, it rose from 150 to 195, the power of retail investors worldwide is still quite strong.
I personally am not optimistic about SPCX, let's wait and see, it's still in the upward stage, wait for the right time to short it, I estimate around 200 is about right.
If it can really be pushed to 300-500, I will admit defeat, no way, Ma Zong's marketing is indeed powerful, I have to admire it, people all over the world are sharpening their heads to rush in, losing money but not running, I bought this as a belief.