As the geopolitical powder keg just starts to cool down, the super-central-bank week is back to add pressure—The Federal Reserve stays on hold, the Bank of Japan has an 80% probability of raising interest rates, and liquidity expectations will need to be re-priced again.

Last week, the US-Iran conflict moved to negotiations at the signing table, with external shocks still bringing uncertainties. Inflation data remains solid: US May PPI rose 1.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year, while CPI increased 4.2% year-over-year; initial jobless claims came in at 229k, setting a new high. The European Central Bank raised the deposit rate to 2.25%. This week, focus on the Federal Reserve staying put, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates exceeding 80%, and the Bank of England’s decision. The Bank of Japan’s decision will be released on 6/16, the Federal Reserve’s on 6/18, and the Bank of England’s decision will follow.