The cruelest part of the market is: the logic that made you money in the last round becomes a trap in the next.

So-called industry judgment, position management, and investment rhythm are all illusions that are only effective within a specific cycle. When the cycle turns, what was correct yesterday becomes a mistake today, and the advantage of yesterday becomes the root of losses today.
Academic research has long proven: even if you can perfectly predict economic cycles, the excess returns from industry rotation strategies are minimal, or even can't outperform simple market timing.
True investment wisdom is not about chasing the success of the last round, but understanding the impermanence of cycles themselves. When everyone is copying the winning strategies from the previous cycle, a new cycle has already quietly begun.
The essence of investing is to oppose path dependence.